Even with war, Iran could have atomic bomb within 1 year, agency says

Iran says it prevented American ships from entering Hormuz The time needed for Iran to produce a nuclear weapon remains up to a year, even after the recent attacks, according to US intelligence assessments obtained by Reuters. The details were released this Monday (4). The United States assesses that the time needed for Iran to produce a nuclear weapon has not changed since last year. Given this, Donald Trump’s government is evaluating the possibility of conducting risky operations to stop Iran’s nuclear program. According to the sources, analysis of Iran’s program remains practically the same, despite the conflict that began with the aim, in part, of preventing the country from developing a bomb. The most recent US-led strikes, beginning on February 28, have mainly targeted conventional military targets. Israel, in turn, has struck some relevant nuclear facilities. The fact that the deadline has not changed indicates that, to significantly curb Iran’s nuclear program, it would be necessary to eliminate or remove the country’s remaining stock of highly enriched uranium. Before June 2025, American intelligence assessed that Iran could produce enough material for a bomb in three to six months. After attacks on nuclear facilities that month, that period was extended to between nine months and a year, according to sources and a person with knowledge of the analysis. The June bombings destroyed or damaged the three main enrichment plants in operation. Still, the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) was unable to confirm the whereabouts of around 440 kilograms of uranium enriched to 60%. The suspicion is that some of this material is stored in underground tunnels in Isfahan. Inspections have been suspended, which prevents verification. According to the IAEA, the total stockpile could be sufficient to produce up to 10 bombs, if enriched further. The White House said recent military operations have “destroyed nuclear facilities and weakened Iran’s defense industrial base,” making it difficult to advance the program. Behind the scenes, however, the US is evaluating riskier options to slow the program, including ground operations to recover uranium stored in tunnels. Little progress European Union presents “final” text to resume nuclear agreement with Iran 05/24/2022 REUTERS/Lisi Niesner American authorities repeat that eliminating Iran’s nuclear capacity is one of the main objectives of the war. “Iran can never have a nuclear weapon. That is the goal,” Vice President JD Vance wrote in March. According to sources interviewed by the Reuters agency, the United States’ recent focus on military targets — and not nuclear ones — helps explain why the estimated deadline for producing an atomic weapon has not changed. Analysts also point out that there are few remaining nuclear targets that can be safely struck after previous strikes. For Eric Brewer, who worked as an intelligence analyst in the US government, this was to be expected. “Iran still has all the nuclear material, as far as we know,” he said. “This material is likely in deep underground facilities where American weapons cannot reach.” Experts say accurately measuring Iran’s nuclear advance is difficult, even for intelligence services. There are also doubts about the impact of recent actions, such as the deaths of Iranian nuclear scientists in operations attributed to Israel. For former UN inspector David Albright, this may have affected the country’s capacity. “Knowledge cannot be destroyed with bombs, but technical mastery can be lost,” he stated. Iran denies seeking nuclear weapons. According to the United States and the IAEA, the country halted a warhead development program in 2003, although Israel and some experts say important parts of the project were maintained. VIDEOS: most watched on g1

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