In recent weeks, the countries of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) have expanded the internal debate on the possibility of an indirect and prolonged confrontation with Russia, centered on the use of hybrid warfare instruments, such as cyberattacks, information operations, sabotage and economic pressure, amid increasing tensions caused by the war in Ukraine and Russian actions in and around allied countries.
Italian Admiral Giuseppe Cavo Dragone, president of the NATO Military Committee, said in an interview with the newspaper Financial Times that the alliance is currently analyzing adopting a more “proactive” stance in the field of cybersecurity, including evaluating preventive actions against Moscow. Although he highlighted that this type of offensive would be far from NATO’s “normal way of acting”, Dragone indicated that the defense concept could include early responses to persistent threats.
The spokeswoman for the Russian regime’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs, Maria Zakharova, classified Dragone’s statements as “an extremely irresponsible step” and stated that they indicate the alliance’s willingness to move towards escalation. According to her, this type of speech undermines diplomatic efforts to reduce the conflict in Ukraine, in reference to the ceasefire negotiations discussed in recent months.
The debate on hybrid warfare occurs in a broader context of warnings within NATO itself. The alliance’s secretary-general, Mark Rutte, recently stated that Russia may be in a position to attack a member country within the next five years, citing increased Russian military production and the intensification of covert operations against Western societies.
“Russia is already escalating its secret campaign against our societies,” Rutte said in a speech in Germany, defending greater military and industrial preparedness in Europe.
European analysts point out that the focus of the ongoing discussion in the alliance is not an immediate conventional war, but rather the continuous confrontation in the so-called “gray zone” of tensions. Analysis carried out by the European think tank Center for European Policy Analysis (CEPA) describes hybrid warfare as a “permanent element of Russian strategy”, based on practices inherited from the Soviet era and enhanced by technologies such as artificial intelligence, cyber operations and information manipulation.
In another analysis, the Atlantic Council think tank said Russia has turned strategic regions such as the Black Sea into a laboratory for “hybrid warfare” and has resorted to airspace violations, infrastructure sabotage, maritime coercion, cyberattacks and disinformation campaigns to destabilize NATO countries and their partners.
According to CEPA, NATO’s isolated defensive measures, such as protecting critical infrastructure and strengthening cybersecurity, reduce damage, but are not enough to deter Moscow. The center advocates that the Western military alliance and the European Union begin to impose clear and coordinated costs on Russia, through targeted sanctions, diplomatic expulsions, legal actions and cyber responses, in order to make hybrid aggression “a bad deal” for the Kremlin.
Despite the analysis, NATO authorities reiterate that they are not currently seeking a direct confrontation with Russia. The predominant discourse among the alliance countries is that of deterrence and collective defense, supported by increased military spending, integration between NATO and European Union capabilities and continued support for Ukraine as a central element of European security.
