The Central Bank’s Monetary Policy Committee will hold its first meeting of 2026 tomorrow (27) to define the new level of the country’s interest rate.
In the Focus Bulletin, released this Monday (26), market analysts pointed out that the 2026 projection should be 12.25%. The 2027 figure remains at 10.50%, the 2028 figure rose to 10% and the expected number for 2029 is 9.50%.
Even with the expectation that the Selic will enter a downward trajectory, Wednesday’s meeting should conclude with the decision to maintain the interest rate at 15% per year. In an interview with Paula Valdez, on Tarde Bandnews, economist André Perfeito argued that the cycle of cuts should have already started.
“The perspective is one of maintenance. This maintenance, in my opinion, is a mistake. We have seen signs that companies’ balance sheets are suffering a lot with this persistence of high interest rates. And more than that, high interest rates are not managing to lead to a process of accommodation in the labor market. What I mean by this is very simple. The employment rate is low, right? If the unemployment rate is low, it means that wages are rising, we have a higher wage bill. When wages rise, this It’s good for the consumer from an individual point of view, but in aggregate terms it signals that the cost of producing things, that is, hiring an economist, a journalist, a hatmaker or a hairdresser becomes more expensive and profit margins fall. That’s why I think we have to start cutting interest rates now.”
For him, the electoral context should not be a reason for hesitation on the part of the monetary authority to make a representative cut in the Selic.
“The current electoral situation undoubtedly generates uncertainty and hesitation. However, if the Central Bank’s autonomy is not used to make decisions regardless of the electoral calendar, what is the purpose of having granted this independence? The BC needs to act.
I believe there is room for a fall in interest rates, as the job market tends to adjust gradually, as there has been significant accommodation, and the exchange rate (dollar) is at an acceptable level.
We hope that the BC uses its independence precisely to look beyond the electoral cycle. The Central Bank has been overly cautious for a long time. The current level of interest rates is, in my opinion, absurd.”
André Perfeito also warns: maintaining a high interest rate can also increase the debt of families and companies, which, ultimately, can also generate recession.
“The essential thing is to signal a continuous downward trajectory of this rate in the coming years, something that the Focus report already indicates. For this reason, the reduction should have started immediately. However, my concern is the high indebtedness of companies and families. Corporate debt, in particular, can be compared to a spring under extreme pressure. If this spring escapes, it could trigger a sudden economic slowdown.”
Even the Daniel Vorcaro and Banco Master scandal became a factor of attention and could make BC directors act more cautiously when deciding on interest rates.
“This is not a direct problem, such as Banco Master draining resources from the Credit Guarantee Fund (FGC) and decapitalizing the system. If that were the case, the solution would be the opposite, that is, reducing the interest rate, not keeping it high.
Therefore, the main issue seems to be linked to the fear of some directors regarding the Central Bank’s reputation. It is worth noting that the BC has a serious board, and the presidency has presented notable results. The fear, however, is more focused on the reputation side”, concludes André Perfeito.
