The United States captured this Saturday (3), in Caracas, Venezuela, the dictator Nicolás Maduro during a historic military operation that changes the political balance in the region and opens space for Washington’s strategic gains in oil, security and pressure on regimes allied to Russia, China and Iran in Latin America.
According to the President of the United States, Donald Trump, this Saturday’s action aimed to remove from power a regime accused of involvement in drug trafficking, terrorism and systematic corruption. Trump stated that Washington will lead the administration of Venezuela until a “safe and adequate transition” is established. He also threatened to launch a “much bigger” offensive if Maduro’s deputy, Delcy Rodríguez, who currently runs the country, does not cooperate with the White House.
Venezuela’s oil sector appears as one of the strategic axes of the American operation against Maduro. According to data from the Oil & Gas JournalVenezuela currently has the largest proven oil reserves in the world, estimated at more than 300 billion barrels. As Trump declared, US oil companies must enter Venezuela and, from now on, invest billions of dollars to recover the country’s energy infrastructure, considered degraded after years of Chavista mismanagement. The idea is, as Trump himself said, to recover all the oil that Venezuela “owes” to the USA.
Despite the potential, the recovery of Venezuelan oil production will not be immediate. According to the newspaper’s analysis The New York TimesVenezuela currently produces around 1 million barrels of oil per day, a volume much lower than that recorded at the beginning of the last decade. To the TimesRichard Bronze, head of geopolitics at consultancy Energy Aspects, said that the resumption of the Venezuelan oil sector will require “political stability, security on the ground and tens of billions of dollars in investments over several years” for the industry to return to “operating at high levels”.
In addition to the economic factor, Maduro’s capture represents a strategic setback for Russia. According to analysis of the think tank Atlantic Council, Moscow loses a key ally in the Western Hemisphere just at a time when it depends on energy exports to finance the war in Ukraine. A possible increase in oil supply under American influence, following the reorganization of the Venezuelan industry, tends to increase competition in the global market and put pressure on Russian revenues.
US control over Venezuelan oil could also affect China. According to an analysis by the Atlantic Council, around 80% of Venezuela’s oil exports in recent years were destined for the Chinese market. With the change of power in Caracas, the reorganization of the energy sector becomes an instrument of Washington’s influence on supply flows and commercial conditions faced by the Beijing regime. Trump stated in his speech this Saturday that oil sales to China could continue, but under new conditions, which, according to analysis by the think tankexpands the United States’ ability to shape strategic energy flows.
Pressure on weakened regimes
In the Middle East, Maduro’s fall is seen as a warning to Iran. As highlighted by the Atlantic Council, the operation in Caracas sends a signal that the United States is willing to employ military force against regimes accused of destabilizing entire regions and maintaining alliances with criminal organizations.
In Latin America, the immediate effect falls on Cuba. According to American authorities and analyzes published in the international press, the Cuban regime has historically depended on the supply of Venezuelan oil at subsidized prices. The interruption of this flow tends to deepen the economic crisis on the island, which is already facing fuel shortages and frequent blackouts. In an interview with New York PostPresident Trump stated that he does not intend to carry out a military intervention in Cuba and assessed that the regime “will fall by itself”, due to the economic deterioration and the loss of Venezuelan support.
“Cuba is in a very bad situation. It has always depended a lot on Venezuela,” said the Republican.
Maduro and his wife, Cilia Flores, were taken to the United States and must face charges of narcoterrorism, international drug trafficking and conspiracy, according to documents from the Federal Court for the Southern District of New York. The accusations point out that, for more than two decades, the regime used state structures to facilitate the shipment of cocaine to the United States.
In Caracas, Vice President Delcy Rodríguez claimed the continuity of the Chavista government and demanded the immediate release of Maduro, classifying the operation carried out by the US this Saturday as “illegal”.
