Suspicions of use of privileged information that affect the Presidency of Donald Trump

The analysis carried out by the BBC identified a consistent pattern of spikes in movements Getty Images/BBC Throughout the second term of United States President Donald Trump, which began in January 2025, market operators have been betting millions of dollars just before he makes important announcements. The BBC analyzed trading volume data in several financial markets and cross-referenced it with some of Trump’s most relevant statements with an impact on the markets (and the values ​​traded). BBC analysis identified a consistent pattern of spikes in activity that occur hours, sometimes minutes, before a social media post or press interview becomes public. Some analysts say this presents characteristics of illegal use of privileged information, when operations are made based on information that is not available to the general public. See the videos that are trending on g1 Others claim that the picture is more complex and that some investors have become more adept at anticipating the president’s interventions (without, therefore, using privileged information). Below are five of the most significant examples identified by the BBC. March 9, 2026: ‘The war [no Irã] is practically completed’ Some of the biggest movements occurred in oil operations in the futures market. Nine days after the start of the war between the US and Israel against Iran, Trump told CBS News, the BBC’s partner broadcaster in the US, in a telephone interview, that the conflict was “practically concluded”. Bloomberg/BBC The times here are in accordance with the Greenwich Mean Time (GMT, 3 hours ahead of Brasília time). 6:29 pm: bets on oil soar 7:16 pm: Trump says the war is practically concluded 7:17 pm: Oil price drops 25% The first time the public became aware of the interview was at 7:16 pm, when a journalist published about the subject on the social network X (formerly Twitter). Market operators reacted to the news that the conflict could end much earlier than expected by selling contracts, which caused the price to fall by around 25%. However, market data shows that there was a sharp increase in bets on the fall in the price of oil at 6:29 pm, 47 minutes before the journalist’s publication. The traders who made these bets would have profited millions of dollars from this movement in oil prices. March 23, 2026: ‘complete and total resolution of our hostilities’ On 3/23, just two days after threatening to “annihilate” Iran’s power plants, Trump posted on Truth Social that the US had had “VERY GOOD AND PRODUCTIVE TALKS” with Iran about a “COMPLETE AND TOTAL RESOLUTION” of hostilities. It was a big surprise for diplomacy experts and market operators. bbc chart Bloomberg/BBC Time in the Greenwich Mean Time zone (GMT, 3 hours ahead of Brasília time): 10:48 am – 10:50 am: bets on a fall in oil soar 11:04 am: Donald Trump makes a post about the “total resolution” of hostilities 11:05 am: oil falls 11% Immediately, the stock markets rose and the reference price of oil in the US, which had been rising, fell accentuatedly. As the BBC reported at the time, 14 minutes before the president’s post there was an unusually high number of bets on the price of oil in the US. The same pattern was observed in operations with Brent oil contracts, the other main reference indicator. The negotiations looked “abnormal, for sure”, an oil analyst told the BBC at the time. April 9, 2026: ‘Liberation Day’ pause Apart from the war in the Middle East, there are other examples of trading activity that have raised suspicions. On April 2, 2025, Trump announced what he called “Liberation Day”, a broad package of tariffs on products from practically every country in the world. Stock markets around the world plummeted. But a week later, when Trump announced a 90-day “pause” on tariffs for all countries except China, stock markets soared. The benchmark S&P 500 index rose 9.5%, one of the biggest single-day gains since World War II (1939-1945). The times here are again in accordance with the GMT time zone (three hours ahead of Brasília time). 5:00 p.m.: Traders begin placing big bets on stock market rally 5:18 p.m.: Trump announces pause on tariffs 5:19 p.m.: Stock market begins all-time high Once again, an unusual trading pattern followed these events, with an unusually high number of bets ahead of the announcement in a fund that tracks the S&P 500. The number of contracts traded jumped to more than 10,000 per minute just after 5 p.m. Earlier that day, that number was in the hundreds. Some traders bet more than US$2 million (around R$10 million) on the market’s rise that day, even after seven consecutive days of decline. The strong surge may have generated a profit of almost US$20 million (around R$100 million). Later that week, several U.S. Democratic senators wrote to the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) asking the regulator to investigate whether the president’s announcements “benefited those close to his administration and allies at the expense of the American public.” Asked by the BBC whether it had looked into these allegations, an SEC spokesperson declined to comment. The White House, for its part, did not respond to a BBC request for comment on any of the unusual negotiating activities analyzed in this report. January 3, 2026: Maduro is captured A user won US$436,000 (around R$2.2 million) betting that Nicolás Maduro would leave office by the end of January Reuters December 2025: Burdensome-Mix account is created January 2, 2026: account bets US$32,000 (around R$160,000) on Maduro’s downfall January 3, 2026: Maduro is captured 2026: Maduro is captured and Burdensome-Mix wins US$436,000 (about R$2.2 million) The recent growth of online prediction markets has also attracted attention from observers. Platforms based on blockchain — a type of decentralized database that uses cryptography to record transactions — such as Polymarket and Kalshi offer users the ability to speculate on topics ranging from weather and baseball to US foreign policy. Donald Trump Jr., son of the American president, is an investor in Polymarket and is part of its advisory board. He also serves as a strategic advisor to Kalshi and was approached by the BBC for comment. In December 2025, a user created an account on Polymarket called Burdensome-Mix. On December 30, 2025, he made his first bet that the then president of Venezuela, Nicolás Maduro, would leave office by the end of January 2026. Between December 30, 2025 and January 2, 2026, the account bet a total of US$32.5 thousand (around R$160 thousand). When Maduro was captured by US special forces and removed from power the following day, the Burdensome-Mix account gained US$436,000 (about R$2.2 million). Shortly afterwards, the account changed its username and no longer placed bets. February 28, 2026: attacks on Iran February 2026: six accounts are created on Polymarket and later bet that an attack on Iran would occur by February 28 February 28, 2026: USA and Israel attack Iran and accounts earn US$1.2 million (about R$6 million) According to blockchain analysis site Bubblemaps, six accounts were created on Polymarket in February. They all placed bets that a US attack on Iran would occur by February 28, 2026. When the attacks were confirmed by Trump, in the early hours of that day, the accounts together profited around US$1.2 million (around R$6 million). Five of these six users have not placed any bets since then, but recent activity from one of the accounts indicates that it subsequently won US$163,000 (about R$820,000) by correctly betting on a ceasefire between the US and Iran until April 7, 2026, announced by the countries that day. Polymarket told the BBC that it “establishes, maintains and enforces the highest standards of market integrity”, adding that it works “proactively” with regulators and authorities to do so. In March this year, both Polymarket and Kalshi announced new rules to combat the use of privileged information. Prediction markets are under the jurisdiction of the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC). The CFTC did not respond to a request for comment from the BBC, but its president recently told a congressional committee that the agency has “zero tolerance” for fraud and insider trading. It also emerged that the White House sent an internal email to employees last month warning them not to use inside information to place bets on prediction markets. Spokesman Davis Ingle told the BBC at the time that “any suggestion that government officials are involved in this type of activity without evidence is unfounded and irresponsible.” Difficult to Prove Insider trading has been illegal for most Americans since the passage of the Securities Act of 1933. The legislation was expanded in 2012 to include U.S. government officials, although no one has been prosecuted under this rule to date. Paul Oudin, a professor specializing in the law of financial regulation at ESSEC Business School in France, says the rules are difficult to apply. “Financial authorities do not pursue a process if they cannot identify the source of the information,” says Oudin. None of the US financial officials contacted by the BBC acknowledged the allegations of insider trading. “It is possible to have large transactions in a financial asset that clearly indicate that someone had prior access to what Donald Trump was about to announce,” says Oudin. “However, there is a high probability that no one will be prosecuted,” he adds. Graphics by Tommy Lumby

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