What is the real risk of a war spreading across Europe?

What is the real risk of a war spreading across Europe? The increase in predictions about a possible open conflict between Europe and Russia has generated a climate of apprehension on the continent. But is the risk real? Or is it scaremongering? The fear is fueled by recurring predictions about a direct confrontation between European countries and Russia. In Germany, there has been talk of a risk for 2029 — although this date may vary. These projections gain strength in a context of a significant increase in defense spending on the continent and the return of mandatory military service. ✅ Follow the g1 international news channel on WhatsApp At the same time, statements by the United States government under the command of Donald Trump about the possibility of acquiring Greenland — without ruling out a military invasion — raised the tone of tension. Denmark’s prime minister stated that an invasion of the territory would mean the end of NATO. Despite this, the vast majority of Americans do not support military action in the Arctic. The idea has also met with resistance within the Republican Party itself, making an invasion of Greenland extremely unlikely. Still, the moment is tense. Experts warn of the risk of analyzes based on worst-case scenarios — common among military personnel, whose job is to anticipate risks and prepare for them. While this type of assessment is important, it does not necessarily help measure the most likely scenarios and can contribute to the spread of panic. The Stockholm International Peace Research Institute – also known as Sipri – draws attention to a recurring distortion: “There is a tendency to overestimate adversary hostility and underestimate how our own actions influence threat perception.” The way Russia and Europe see each other today reflects this. This distortion is not new. It has already been described in the book “Perception and Misperception in International Politics”, Robert Jervis, published in the 1970s, in times of the Cold War. Even so, the perception persists in Europe that a NATO country could become the next victim of alleged Russian expansionism. For Sipri, this scenario is “highly unlikely”. The central argument is regional military imbalance: unlike the Cold War period, “the regional military balance overwhelmingly favors NATO, whose combined conventional military capabilities and defense expenditures far exceed those of Russia – even excluding the US from the comparison.” The institute, however, highlights a risk that it considers more relevant at this time and that has been neglected: that of accidental escalation. With increasing tension and investment in defense, we are increasingly seeing encounters between Russian and NATO forces. In the Baltic Sea, for example, a Russian fighter entered Estonian airspace for 12 minutes. In another episode, the British Air Force intercepted 15 Russian aircraft in just six days: one of them even flew close to a United States Navy ship. In the Arctic, the US conducted military exercises with B-52 bombers near the border between Finland and Russia. These are just a few encounters. If an accident happens, the situation can easily get out of control. In these scenarios, the level of armament is less decisive than the existence of effective communication channels between the militaries of Russia, Europe and the United States — precisely to avoid unwanted escalation. In short, the risk of a full-scale war in Europe exists, but is considered unlikely. What tends to remain is the warlike discourse, predictions of extreme scenarios and an environment of tension between countries.

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