No Last Analysis program this Tuesday (06)the guests analyzed how the arrest of Venezuelan dictator Nicolás Maduro, by the United States, could directly impact the Brazilian presidential elections of 2026. Lula is an ally of the Venezuelan and this could become an electoral burden for the PT member’s claim to re-election. Public opinion must also demand an official position. Will Lula remain faithful to his old friends or will he embrace the new winds of global geopolitics?
“Lula received Maduro, at the Palácio do Planalto, with a red carpet. He even defended the dictator in the press, saying that Venezuela had more elections than Brazil and that it was, yes, a democracy”, recalled councilor Guilherme Kilter. For the commentator, this old position of the PT member should harm him in the future.
On the other hand, in the last elections, the open relationship between the two left-wing leaders was denied, especially by the TSE. The body even banned electoral advertisements that associated then-candidate Lula with Maduro. At the time, the court classified this association as “disinformation”, even though there were historical records of ideological support and affinity between the two.
Lawyer Fabiana Barroso does not believe in major changes on the part of the Electoral Court. “Even with the change in presidency of the TSE, I think absolutely nothing has changed. That’s why it’s important for the press to document this friendship, because both Maduro and Lula are not accidents. They are the portrait of the left on the continent”, he assesses.
Kilter is more optimistic and sees that Minister Alexandre de Moraes is more cornered. For him, “there is the entire history of Banco Master and even a CPMI to investigate the case. Moraes is the epicenter of this, along with his wife. And, unlike 2022, Gilmar Mendes, the most influential minister, will retire. Moraes may be left without allies”.
The post-Maduro transition
Donald Trump chose not to immediately inaugurate the opposition in Venezuela, preferring a transition that involves the country’s military structure, to avoid a conflict between paramilitary factions. Hours after the American operation, Defense Minister Vladimir Padrino López confirmed that the Armed Forces recognized Delcy Rodríguez, then Maduro’s deputy, as the new interim head of the Executive.
“Venezuela is a kind of patchwork of small military and paramilitary groups, which are often in tension with each other, in an environment of absolute misery, united by a single thread: the military structure of the government”, assesses FGV professor Daniel Vargas.
Furthermore, according to the American newspaper The Wall Street JournalTrump followed recommendations from the US intelligence agency, the CIA, by not immediately deposing the entire regime. The body concluded that opposition leaders would have difficulty remaining in power.
“Anything can happen. Venezuela is hanging by a thread and there is no order, but there is a force of power, mainly military, which can also be broken because there are active paramilitary groups”, warns Barroso.
The program Latest Analysis is part of Gazeta do Povo’s live journalistic content, on YouTube. Showing times are 7pm to 8:30pm, Monday to Friday. The proposal is to discuss in a rational, in-depth and respectful way some of the challenging topics for the country’s direction.
