Why protests in Iran are the biggest test for the regime since 1979 and make the next few days decisive

Iran’s regime is in its ‘last days’, says Germany’s head of government Iran’s rulers face their biggest challenge since their own 1979 revolution. Now they are responding with an unprecedented crackdown. They unleashed a massive security offensive and a near-total internet shutdown on a scale never before seen in previous crises. Many of the streets, which once echoed with cries of outrage against the regime, are now beginning to fall silent. ✅ Follow g1’s international news channel on WhatsApp “On Friday it was packed, the crowd was impressive and there were a lot of gunshots. On Saturday night everything calmed down,” a Tehran resident told the BBC. “You have to be crazy to leave the house now,” commented an Iranian journalist. This time, the internal unrest is compounded by an external threat, with US President Donald Trump’s repeated warnings of possible military action, seven months after the United States attacked key nuclear facilities during a 12-day war between Iran and Israel that weakened the regime. But, to use the American leader’s frequent analogy, it also gave Iran “one more card” to play. Trump claims that Tehran requested to return to the negotiating table. But Iran is not in a favorable position: Trump has said he may need to take some action before any meetings; negotiations will not completely dissipate the tension generated by the protests. And Iran will not surrender to the United States’ maximalist demands, including a complete halt to uranium enrichment, which would go beyond limits at the heart of this theocracy’s strategic doctrine. Despite the pressure of the moment, there are no signs that Iranian leaders will change course. “Their inclination is to suppress the protests, try to survive this moment and then decide which way to go,” said Vali Nasr, of the Jhon Hopkins School of Advanced International Studies and author of Iran’s Grand Strategy. “But given their difficult situation with the United States, with Israel and with sanctions, even if they manage to quell these protests, they don’t have many options to improve the lives of Iranians,” he adds. READ ALSO Iran marks for this fourth first execution of protester, says NGO Trump was informed about a wide range of military options that the US can use against Iran, say sources ‘They shoot to kill’, ‘shots to the head’, deserted streets: Iranians report the situation after Iran resumes communication with the outside New protests, the same questions Authorities seek to regain control in Iran after weeks of protests AFP This week could be decisive for the course of events, as it will determine whether Iran and the region in general will find itself immersed in a new wave of military attacks or if brute force managed to completely suffocate these protests, as has happened in the past. Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi told diplomats in Tehran that “the situation is now under full control.” Outside, in broad daylight, the streets of Tehran were filled with people the government had called on to take to the streets and take them back from protesters. Five days after a total communications blockade, an even more frightening image reaches the world through Starlink satellite terminals, Iranian technical ingenuity, and the courage of a few. Reports come from doctors of hospitals overflowing with victims, videos of makeshift open-air morgues with long rows of black body bags, and audio sent to journalists on the BBC’s Persian service expressing shock and fear. The numbers increase. In the last wave of protests in 2022 and 2023, which lasted more than six months, human rights groups recorded around 500 deaths and more than 20,000 detainees. This time, in just a few weeks, reports indicate that the number of deaths is already much higher and that more than 20 thousand people have been detained so far. The government does not deny the bloodshed, and state television also shows images of makeshift morgues — and even admits that some protesters died. The streets of Iran are on fire. Several government buildings were set on fire by angry protesters. They are symbols of the system, but the government condemns attacks on public property, classifying them as the work of “terrorists and agitators.” Legal language also hardened during this period: “vandals” will be accused of “waging war against God” and will face the death penalty. According to the Hengaw Organization for Human Rights, a 26-year-old protester, detained last Thursday, will be executed this Wednesday (14). The government places most of the blame for the resurgence in domestic violence on foreign enemies — a key term used to refer to Israel and the United States. This time, the accusation is bolstered by clear evidence of infiltration by the Israeli security agency Mossad during last year’s 12-day war. With each new wave of unrest in Iran, the same questions arise: how far will these protests extend? Who is taking to the streets and squares? How will authorities respond? Unexpected explosion Protests left hundreds dead in Iran REUTERS This latest wave was unique in many ways. It started more commonly. On December 28, traders selling imported electronic products in Tehran were surprised by the currency’s sudden collapse; They closed their stores, went on strike and encouraged other traders to do the same. The government’s initial response was quick and conciliatory. President Masoud Pezeshkian promised dialogue and recognized the “legitimate demands” in a country where inflation soars to almost 50% a year and currency devaluation wreaks havoc on the population’s already precarious lives. Shortly afterwards, a new monthly subsidy of around US$7 (R$38) was deposited into everyone’s bank accounts to alleviate the situation. But prices continued to rise and the wave of discontent intensified. Less than three weeks later, Iranians were marching everywhere from small, impoverished provincial towns to major metropolises, demanding political and economic change. There are no quick or simple solutions anymore; the problem is the system. Survival of the system Ali Khamenei says he will not give in to Donald Trump Getty Images via BBC Iran is devastated by years of crippling international sanctions, mismanagement, corruption, deep outrage at restrictions on social freedoms and anguish at the cost of this prolonged confrontation with the West. But so far, the system appears to be holding up. “The most important element still missing for a total collapse is for the repressive forces to decide that they no longer benefit from the regime and that they are no longer willing to kill for it,” explains Karim Sadjadpour, a researcher at the Carnegie Foundation in Washington. Before this crisis took hold, it was known that the most powerful actors in Iran’s ruling circles were deeply divided on key issues. Among them, whether or not to resume the unfortunate negotiations with the United States on a new nuclear agreement and how to restore strategic deterrence after the blows suffered by its military allies and political partners during the war in Gaza. But the survival of the system, your system, is what matters above all. Maximum authority continues to rest with the supreme leader, 86-year-old Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, who is surrounded by his most loyal supporters, including the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, which now exercises great influence over the economy, politics and security of the Islamic Republic. It is known that Trump’s almost daily threats have intensified the attention of those in power. They also provoked widespread speculation about the impact of any external intervention. Military action could empower protesters, but it could also be counterproductive. “The main effect would be to consolidate elite unity and suppress divisions within the regime at a time of great vulnerability,” says Sanam Vakil, director of the Middle East and North Africa program at London-based think tank Chatham House. The role of Reza Pahlavi Reza Pahlavi speaks to the press during an event in Paris on June 23, 2025 Abdul Saboor/File/Reuters One of the most influential Iranian voices calling for President Trump to intervene is that of exiled former crown prince Reza Pahlavi, whose father was deposed as shah of Iran during the 1979 Islamic revolution. However, his appeal and close ties to Israel are controversial. Other voices, from Nobel Peace Prize winner Narges Mohammadi, still imprisoned in Iran, to award-winning filmmaker Jafar Panahi, insist that change must be peaceful and come from within the country. In the midst of this current unrest, Pahlavi has demonstrated his ability to drive and shape this uprising. Their appeals, made early last week, appear to have drawn more people onto the streets despite the bitter winter cold. It is impossible to know the scope of their support and whether this deep desire for change leads some to cling to a familiar symbol. The pre-revolutionary Iranian flag, with the lion and the sun, was raised again. Pahlavi insists he does not intend to restore the monarchy, but rather to lead a democratic transition. However, in the past, he has not been a unifying figure within the divided Iranian diaspora. Fears of collapse and chaos, financial problems and other factors also worry Iranians, including those who support the ruling clergy. Reform, not revolution, is the option some consider. History teaches us that when fervor and strength meet in the streets, change can come from above or from below. It is always unpredictable and often dangerous. VIDEOS: trending on g1 See videos that are trending on g1

Source link