Map war: the political battle in the US that could strengthen or weaken Trump

US states redraw electoral maps Thalita Ferraz/Arte g1 The United States is experiencing an internal political war to redraw state electoral maps before the legislative elections, scheduled for November 3rd. The goal? Strengthen or weaken President Donald Trump’s government. ✅ Follow g1’s international news channel on WhatsApp ▶️ Context: Unlike Brazil, the United States Congress is partially renewed every two years. When they occur in the middle of the presidential term, these elections are called midterms — or mid-term elections. US deputies serve two-year terms, while senators serve six-year terms. As a result, every two years, the country renews the entire Chamber of Representatives and around a third of the Senate. Therefore, in November, all 435 seats in the Chamber and 35 of the 100 in the Senate will be up for grabs. In the 2024 elections, the Republican Party secured a majority in both Houses, but by a small margin. The result provided the basis for Trump to advance his agenda in Congress, as he is also from the Republican Party. On the other hand, the tight majority limited this strength and exposed divisions within the party itself on more sensitive issues. To try to expand this advantage in this year’s elections, Trump suggested that Republicans support the redrawing of electoral districts in the states. The idea is to increase the chances of electing more allies to the Chamber. In the United States, deputies are elected by district — areas within each state that may include entire cities or just part of them. New York’s 11th district, for example, brings together just a few neighborhoods in New York City. These districts are drawn based on population. In general, each one should have a similar number of inhabitants. This means that each deputy represents a similar share of the population within the state. Trump’s offensive began in Texas. The state has the second largest number of representatives in the country and is an important stronghold of the Republican Party. The strategy was to redraw electoral districts to create a more Republican-friendly map. The proposal was approved in the state in August 2025 and is already in force. With the new design, the expectation is that the map will favor Republicans by redistributing voters and reducing areas where Democrats had an advantage. 🔎 In practice, this could yield the party up to five more seats than in the 2024 elections. The strategy, however, generated a reaction. Three months later, California decided to redraw its own map to favor Democrats. As a result, the opposition is expected to take five seats that currently belong to Republicans. And this fight didn’t stop there. War in the states Trump provokes a battle between states by proposing to redefine electoral districts in Texas The redraws of the electoral maps of Texas and California provoked questions in court, but ended up being validated by the Supreme Court. At the same time, the dispute spread to other states. See below. 🔴 Missouri Republican Governor Mike Kehoe signed into law, in September, a new map that eliminates a district currently controlled by Democrats. The change favors Republicans, who could win a seat in the House. Opponents are still trying to take the case to a popular referendum and have also taken legal action. For now, the map is in place. 🔴 Ohio A state rule forced the creation of a new map for 2026, as the previous one had been approved without Democratic support. The redistricting commission, with five Republicans and two Democrats, unanimously approved a new design in October. The proposal increases the chances of Republicans winning up to two seats today from Democrats. 🔴 North Carolina In October, the Republican majority in the Legislature approved a new map that could guarantee the party a seat currently controlled by Democrats. 🔵 Utah A state judge nullified a map drawn up by Republicans as illegal. The court ordered the adoption of a new design made by an independent group, which could transfer one of the four currently Republican seats to Democrats. 🔵 Virginia Voters approved on Tuesday (21) a new map drawn up by Democrats, with the potential to flip up to four seats. Republicans challenged the process, and two days later a state judge overturned the vote. The case remains in dispute in court. 🔴 Florida Governor Ron DeSantis called a special legislative session to discuss a new map. The proposal could yield up to five more seats for the Republicans. However, the plan faces legal barriers, as the state Constitution prohibits maps made to favor parties. ▶️ Other cases Indiana and Kansas tried to move forward with changes favorable to the Republicans, but were unable to approve them. In Maryland, a Democrat-backed bill stalled due to lack of support in the state Senate. In New York, the court had ordered the redrawing of a Republican district, which could favor a Democrat in November. The decision, however, was suspended by the Supreme Court. How is the current scenario? United States President Donald Trump during a Turning Point USA event on April 17, 2026 REUTERS/Evan Vucci Recent polls indicate that the Republican Party is at risk of losing control of the House in the November elections. At the moment, Trump is facing a drop in approval, caused by the country’s economic situation and the war against Iran. Below are some scenarios. 📊 Center for Politics at the University of Virginia The academic center monitors US elections and gathers projections based on research. The most recent data indicates a Democratic advantage in the Chamber and maintenance of the Republican majority in the Senate. Center for Politics projection for the Midterms Gui Sousa/Arte g1 📊 270toWin The website compiled different electoral surveys and simulated seat distribution scenarios. The current projection points to a Democratic advantage in the Chamber. 270toWin projection for the Midterms Gui Sousa/Arte g1 📊 Race to the WH Political journalist Logan Phillips’ platform projects electoral results based on an average of polls. The most recent scenario is favorable to the Democrats, with a greater chance of retaking the Chamber and a more balanced dispute in the Senate. Race to the WH projection for the Midterms Gui Sousa/Arte g1 According to the survey, Democrats currently have a 79% chance of taking control of the Chamber. In the Senate, Republicans have a 54% probability of maintaining their majority — an advantage that has been falling in recent days. VIDEOS: most watched on g1

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