Dispute over succession of dead drug kingpin could generate new wave of violence in Mexico

Cars burned by organized crime groups in Mexico ULISES RUIZ / AFP The spectacular show of strength by the Jalisco Nueva Generación Cartel (CJNG), through fires and clashes with the military in several regions of Mexico following the death of its leader, has raised fears that a dispute over the new leadership will soon reproduce this wave of violence. The death of Nemesio Oseguera, known as “El Mencho”, constituted a short-term victory for the government of President Claudia Sheinbaum, but, according to experts, the real challenge will be to contain the CJNG’s counterattack, which will inevitably enter into an internal struggle for power. READ MORE: Why the death of ‘El Mencho’, Mexico’s most wanted drug lord, does not reduce violence in the country Oseguera fell into the hands of soldiers on Sunday in Tapalpa, in the west of the country. He was injured when trying to escape and died while being transferred to the hospital. For experts, the cartel’s response – with armed clashes, blockades and burning of cars, businesses and banks in 20 of Mexico’s 32 states – was not just revenge for the death of its leader, but a show of force directed at authorities and rival criminal groups. What will this dispute be like? The cartel will have to fill the void left by “El Mencho”, who vertically and with an iron fist commanded this organization with more than 30 thousand members, according to academic studies. For Raúl Benítez Manáut, a Mexican specialist in national security, the question is whether there will be an agreed transition between the second hierarchies of the cartel or whether a violent internal war will be unleashed. The researcher considers that, in any case, the government must act before the 2026 World Cup, especially in the state of Jalisco, whose capital, Guadalajara, will be one of the three Mexican venues for the football tournament that will be played from June 11th to July 19th. The CJNG is a “very centralized organization, with a great capacity to cause terror with cars, bombs and all that”, which generates “a kind of tactical terrorism”, Manáut explained to AFP. If the criminal organization acts “synchronously on several occasions”, as it did on Sunday, it will place “the Mexican government and security forces in serious difficulties”. Who was ‘El Mencho’, the kingpin of Mexican drug trafficking Who will be the heir of “El Mencho”? Oseguera’s omnipresence in the CJNG was such that many believe he may have appointed his successor to ensure the cohesion of the cartel. In 2025, the United States Department of the Treasury indicated that Julio Alberto Castillo Rodríguez, son-in-law of “El Mencho”, was “considered a possible successor to Oseguera”. Castillo facilitated, through the port of Manzanillo, on the Pacific coast, the entry of chemical precursors that the cartel uses to manufacture fentanyl and other drugs that end up being trafficked to the United States, the Treasury Department said in a statement. Two or three other people are also identified as possible leaders of the criminal group. Typically, these organizations have two types of strong men: one in a suit, who manages the money, and a boss of gunmen, explains Benítez Manáut. “The gunmen will want the leader’s money” and will try to take it with bullets; the businessman “will have it well hidden” and will say: “‘if you kill me, you won’t keep a penny, we’d better make a deal'”. After Oseguera’s eldest son, known as “El Menchito”, was sentenced to life in prison in the United States in 2025, his ex-wife Rosalía González Valencia and his two daughters were mentioned as possible successors. But Mike Vigil, a former DEA agent, says a cartel like the CJNG won’t take “orders from a woman, because they believe so much in machismo.” The organization’s violent response in reprisal for the death of the drug leader provoked fear among the population. “It was about sending a message to the Mexican government and rival cartels saying (…) ‘we are powerful, we are still strong'”, says Vigil. They are warning that the death of “El Mencho” has not weakened them and are threatening their enemies to prevent them from taking over their drug trafficking routes and the territories where they operate, he explains. The government has “taken precautions”, mobilizing thousands of soldiers in Jalisco and other states, says the former DEA agent, who believes that the armed forces will control the situation. Manáut emphasizes, however, that the military must expel these gunmen from the Pacific coast, controlled by the CJNG, as well as from the “central mass” of the country, through which two strategic highways pass with branches to several states in the west and north of Mexico. The operation that ended the life of “El Mencho” was “a victory for the Army and also for the president, in the short term. But, if they are unable to control the consequences, this could turn against them”, warns the expert.

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