What elections will Latin America have in 2026 (and how much can Trump influence them)

Millions of Latin Americans are called to go to the polls in 2026 Bloomberg via Getty Images In addition to Brazil, four more Latin American nations are expected to elect their new presidents in 2026, including another of the region’s largest democracies, in terms of number of inhabitants: Colombia. In both countries, the elections are expected to face strong political polarization. They should define the power of the left on the continent, which currently commands both governments. But there is a question surrounding the ballot boxes in Latin America in 2026: how far will the influence of a figure from outside the region — the President of the United States, Donald Trump — reach? Trump demonstrated his willingness to impose the weight of his office (and the US Treasury) on elections held on the continent over the past year. In Argentina’s legislative elections and Honduras’ 2025 presidential elections, the American president supported right-wing forces and warned that the United States would cut off its financial aid to those countries if they were defeated. In both countries, the options supported by Trump won, as in Ecuador, with the re-election of President Daniel Noboa. “At an unprecedented level since the end of the Cold War, the Trump administration and the president himself have put their finger on the scale to influence electoral results and political processes in Latin America,” Cynthia Arnson, a specialist in the region at Johns Hopkins University in the United States, told BBC News Mundo (the BBC’s Spanish-language service). At the beginning of the year, there are already signs that Trump may try to once again influence the Latin American polls. The question, in this case, is whether he will continue to obtain favorable results. See the videos that are trending on g1 The first elections of the year Brazil, Colombia, Costa Rica, Peru and Haiti are expected to elect presidents and legislators in 2026. The Costa Rican elections are the first to take place. On February 1, voters must choose the new head of state, two vice-presidents and the 57 members of the country’s Legislative Assembly. If no presidential candidate reaches 40% of the votes, the two most voted will compete in the second round, on April 5th. Latin American electoral calendar in 2026 Costa Rica: presidential and legislative elections on February 1; possible presidential second round on April 5th. Peru: presidential and legislative elections on April 2; possible presidential second round on June 7th. Colombia: legislative elections on March 8; first round of presidential elections on May 31; and possible presidential second round on June 21. Haiti: general elections on August 30; possible presidential second round on December 6th. Brazil: general elections on October 4; possible presidential second round on October 25th. Costa Rica’s elections may mark the first controversy of the year on the continent. The country’s Superior Electoral Court requested the withdrawal of President Rodrigo Chaves’ immunity, for alleged undue intervention in the electoral process. But the legislature blocked the request in December. Chaves denies having acted incorrectly and cannot run for re-election. But his good approval ratings could favor his party’s candidate for succession, his former chief of staff Laura Fernández. The center-left former first lady Claudia Dobles, the ultra-right deputy Fabricio Alvarado, in his third attempt, and the former head of Costa Rican social security Álvaro Ramos are among other possible candidates for the country’s presidency. In Peru, extraordinary political fragmentation makes the April 2 elections unpredictable. There is a record number of at least 34 registered candidates. The elected person will be the ninth Peruvian president in a decade. Polls indicate that, at the moment, none of them would surpass half the votes in the first round. Therefore, the second round is likely to be held on June 7th. In Peru, despite discontent with politics and insecurity, there is a large number of aspirants for the country’s presidency Bloomberg via Getty Images Among the candidates, the mayor of Lima, Rafael López Aliaga, declared a Trump supporter, and the right-wing Keiko Fujimori, who is running for the fourth time for the position once held by her father, Alberto Fujimori (1938-2024). The other candidates for Peru’s presidency include everything from a comedian to a former football goalkeeper. In a climate of strong political apathy, with public security at the top of Peruvians’ concerns, it is possible that a virtual unknown will be elected, as occurred in 2021, with professor and trade unionist Pedro Castillo. The following year, Castillo was dismissed and arrested, accused of an attempted coup d’état. Two challenges for the left In Colombia, the 2026 electoral cycle promises to be long and heated. Legislative elections take place on March 8. On the same date, consultations between the parties take place to select presidential candidates. On May 31, voters will go to the polls for the first presidential round. And, if no candidate obtains an absolute majority of votes, the second round will follow, on June 21st. Two well-defined blocs are present in the country, each with several pre-candidates for the presidency. One of them is linked to the current left-wing government, with Iván Cepeda, Roy Barreras and Camilo Romero as possible candidates. On the other, there is the right-wing opposition. The pre-candidates include Mauricio Cárdenas, Vicky Dávila, Juan Manuel Galán, Aníbal Gaviria, David Luna, Juan Daniel Oviedo and Paloma Valencia. But other competitors may emerge, such as the centrist Sergio Fajardo, the conservative Miguel Uribe (father of the senator of the same name, murdered last year), the progressive former mayor of Bogotá Claudia López and the ultra-right lawyer Abelardo de la Espriella. Although he cannot run for re-election, current Colombian president Gustavo Petro is expected to be one of the protagonists of this year’s elections in the country. AFP via Getty Images In addition to the three possible votes to follow, we must add the initiative promoted by the Gustavo Petro government to collect signatures to convene a national constituent assembly. This could be an additional boost for the left in the middle of the election campaign, which the opposition observes with trepidation. Petro cannot run for re-election. He records high levels of disapproval, but maintains a strong support base of around a third of the electorate. And this data can influence the definition of his successor. Between the votes in Colombia and Brazil, Haiti is expected to celebrate its first election in almost a decade. The country is experiencing a humanitarian crisis and suffers from massive violence by armed gangs. The Caribbean country’s Provisional Electoral Council scheduled the first round for August 30th and the possible second round for December 6th. But he warned that it will be necessary to guarantee security and financial resources to carry out the vote. Without these requirements, the Haitian elections are likely to be postponed once again. In Brazil, political polarization ahead of the presidential elections on October 4th is so great that a recent advertisement for Havaianas sandals led to a call for a boycott by the right. The brand invited people to start 2026 “with both feet” and not just “with the right foot”. Everything indicates that President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva will seek re-election in a position of advantage compared to the right, which is divided and affected by the conviction, in September, of former president Jair Bolsonaro, for an attempted coup d’état. Brazil is preparing for the 2026 elections in a climate of intense political polarization. Getty Images Jair Bolsonaro nominated his son, senator Flávio Bolsonaro, as a pre-candidate for president. But his nomination appears to be far from convincing the entire spectrum of the right, which includes three governors as possible candidates: Tarcísio de Freitas Republicanos), from São Paulo; Ratinho Júnior (PSD), from Paraná; and Romeu Zema (Novo), from Minas Gerais. “According to current poll numbers, this division could lead to a victory for Lula in the first round, without the need for a second round [previsto para 25 de outubro]”, according to political scientist Maurício Santoro. “It would be an unprecedented feat. The three times Lula was elected president, he won in the second round.” But Santoro highlights that Lula turned 80 years old in October. He is the oldest president in Brazilian history. Lula appears to be in good health, but any accident or illness that prevents him from running again would leave the left without a natural candidate for his succession, according to the political scientist. The eventual defeat of the government in Brazil or Colombia would further weaken the Latin American left, after the recent series of conservative triumphs on the continent. The latter The Trump factor Experts indicate that one of the reasons why Lula managed to reverse his decline in approval ratings in 2025 was his clash with Donald Trump. independent institutions that will not accept being tutored by anyone.” With this, the Brazilian president presented himself as a defender of his country’s national interests. Bolsonaro was arrested, Lula and Trump made peace and the United States gave up on a large part of the tariffs on Brazilian products. “Brazil, today, is a great paradox”, highlights Santoro. “Perhaps it is the only country in the world where Trump ended up making friends with a left-wing president and his interference in Brazilian politics ended up benefiting a left-wing government.” After facing each other, Trump and Lula managed to talk and reached agreements. Getty Images Therefore, Trump may seek to influence other elections in the region, before the Brazilian ones. “Of the elections to be held in the region in 2026, none are more transcendental than those in Colombia and Brazil”, says Cynthia Arnson. which the Colombian president vehemently denies. The dispute with Trump could bring risks for Petro. After all, the United States remains Colombia’s main partner and four in five Colombians believe it is important that their presidential candidate has good relations with Washington, according to a recent survey by the local institute Invamer. “Trump’s political interference could provoke an adverse reaction, as occurred in Brazil”, warns Arnson.

Source link