‘Trump’s action in Venezuela could create a precedent for authoritarian powers around the world’

Donald Trump EPA With the capture of Venezuelan leader Nicolás Maduro, Donald Trump demonstrated more forcefully than ever his belief in the power of his own will, sustained by the brute force of United States military power. On his orders, the US put Maduro behind bars and will now “manage” Venezuela. The American president made the announcement at an extraordinary press conference, with enormous implications for US foreign policy around the world, held at his Florida club and residence, Mar-a-Lago. Trump said the United States will remain in charge of Venezuela “until we can make a safe, adequate and judicious transition.” According to Trump, US Secretary of State Marco Rubio spoke with Venezuelan Vice President Delcy Rodríguez, who said: “We will do whatever you need… She, I think, was very cordial, but she really has no choice.” Trump gave few details. He said “we are not afraid to put boots on the ground if necessary.” SEE ALSO: In a statement, Latin American countries express concern about ‘attempted government control’ after attack on Venezuela But does he believe he can govern Venezuela from a distance? Will this demonstration that he is willing to back up words with military action — praised effusively at Mar-a-Lago by both Marco Rubio and U.S. Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth — enough to reshape Venezuela and intimidate Latin American leaders into submission? It sounded as if he believed something along those lines. The evidence indicates that this will not be easy or smooth. In October, the respected think tank International Crisis Group warned that Maduro’s ouster could lead to violence and instability in Venezuela. In the same month, the New York Times reported that defense and diplomacy officials from the first Trump administration had simulated scenarios about what could happen if Maduro fell. The conclusion was the prospect of violent chaos, with armed factions vying for power. The removal and arrest of Nicolás Maduro represents an extraordinary demonstration of American military power. The United States mobilized a huge armada and achieved its objective without losing a single American life. Maduro had ignored the will of the Venezuelan people by disregarding his own electoral defeat, and his departure will undoubtedly be welcomed by many of the country’s citizens. But the implications of the United States’ action will have repercussions far beyond Venezuela’s borders. The mood at the Mar-a-Lago press conference was triumphalist, with the celebration of what was undoubtedly an exemplary operation, conducted by highly professional American forces. The military operation is just the first step. The United States’ record of bringing about regime change by force over the past 30 years is disastrous. Political support is what determines the success or failure of the process. Iraq descended into a bloody catastrophe after the American invasion in 2003. In Afghanistan, two decades and billions of dollars invested in attempts at nation-building were swept away within days of the US withdrawal in 2021. Neither country was in the United States’ “backyard.” Still, the ghosts of past interventions in Latin America — and the threat of others that may yet come — are not much more promising. Trump tested a new nickname, the “Donroe Doctrine,” for the statement made by President James Monroe in 1823 that warned other powers not to interfere in the American sphere of influence in the Western Hemisphere. “The Monroe Doctrine is a very important thing, but we have far surpassed it,” Trump said at Mar-a-Lago. “Under our new national security strategy, American dominance in the Western Hemisphere will never again be questioned.” He said Colombian President Gustavo Petro would have to “watch his own ass.” He later told Fox News that “something is going to have to be done with Mexico.” Cuba is also, without a doubt, on the US agenda, which is being driven by Rubio, whose parents are Cuban-Americans. The United States has a long history of armed interventions in Latin America. I was in Haiti in 1994 when President Bill Clinton sent 25,000 troops and two aircraft carriers to enforce regime change. At the time, the Haitian government collapsed without a single shot being fired. Far from ushering in a better future, the 30 years since have been marked by almost uninterrupted suffering for the Haitian people. Today, Haiti is a failed state dominated by armed gangs. Donald Trump talked about making Venezuela great again, but he didn’t mention democracy. He dismissed the idea that Venezuelan opposition leader María Corina Machado, winner of the 2025 Nobel Peace Prize, should lead the country. “I think it would be very difficult for her to be a leader, she has no support… She has no respect,” he said. He did not mention Edmundo González, who many Venezuelans believe was the real winner of the 2024 elections. Instead, at least for now, the United States is supporting Maduro’s vice president, Delcy Rodríguez. Although there must have been some kind of internal collusion that provided the American military with the inside information needed to remove Maduro, the regime created by his predecessor, Hugo Chávez, appears to remain intact. It is unlikely that the Venezuelan Armed Forces, despite any humiliation their generals may feel at failing to oppose the American attack, will accept the US plans. The regime’s military and civilian supporters have enriched themselves through corruption networks that they will not be willing to lose. Civilian militias were armed by the regime, and Venezuela also has other armed groups. Among them are criminal networks, as well as Colombian guerrillas who supported the Maduro regime in exchange for shelter. Nicolás Maduro and his wife, Cilia Flores. GETTY IMAGES via BBC The US intervention in Venezuela clearly highlights some of the pillars of Trump’s worldview. He makes no secret of how much he covets the mineral wealth of other countries. It has already tried to extract profit from Ukraine’s natural resources in exchange for military aid. Trump also makes no secret of his desire to control Venezuela’s enormous mineral reserves, nor his belief that American oil companies were ripped off when the oil industry was nationalized. “We are going to remove an enormous amount of wealth from the underground, and this wealth will go to the people of Venezuela, to people outside of Venezuela who were previously in the country, and also to the United States of America, in the form of compensation,” he said. This is likely to deepen fears in Greenland and Denmark that he will turn his gaze not just south but also north. The United States has not abandoned its desire to incorporate Greenland, both because of its strategic position in the Arctic and because of the natural resources that are becoming more accessible as the ice melts due to global warming. The operation against Maduro also represents another serious blow to the idea that the best way to govern the world is to follow an agreed set of rules, as established in international law. This notion was already weakened before Donald Trump took office, but he has demonstrated repeatedly, both in the United States and on the international stage, that he believes he can ignore laws he does not like. European allies, who have done everything they can to avoid angering him — including Prime Minister Keir Starmer — now face the challenge of asserting support for international law without condemning the fact that the operation against Maduro constitutes a flagrant violation of the United Nations Charter. The American justification that its military only helped execute an arrest warrant against a drug trafficker who pretended to be the president of Venezuela is fragile, especially given Trump’s statements that the US will control the country and its oil industry. Just hours before Maduro and his wife were captured, he met with Chinese diplomats at his palace in Caracas. China condemned the US action. He stated that “hegemonic acts by the United States seriously violate international law and Venezuela’s sovereignty, in addition to threatening peace and security in Latin America and the Caribbean.” According to Beijing, the US should “stop violating the sovereignty and security of other countries.” Still, China can see a precedent in the American action. Beijing considers Taiwan a breakaway province and has declared that returning the territory to Beijing’s control is a national priority. In Washington, this is precisely the fear of the Democratic vice-chairman of the Senate Intelligence Committee, Senator Mark Warner. In a statement, he said Chinese leaders — and others — will be watching closely. “If the United States claims the right to use military force to invade and capture foreign leaders accused of criminal conduct, what stops China from claiming the same authority over Taiwan’s leadership? What stops [o presidente russo] Vladimir Putin to present a similar justification for kidnapping the president of Ukraine? Once that line is crossed, the rules that contain global chaos begin to crumble, and authoritarian regimes will be the first to exploit it.” Donald Trump appears to believe that he sets the rules and that what applies to the United States under his command does not mean that others can expect the same privileges. But that is not how the world of power works. His actions in early 2026 point to another 12 months of global turmoil.

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