Strategy corner – How rain could upend F1 Dutch GP tactics

Pirelli’s ongoing quest to provide strategic variation has come up short at Zandvoort, largely owing to the relatively short lap (4.259km) and the narrowness of its layout. Overtaking hasn’t been easy here given the speed of modern F1 cars, even with the conversion of the final corner to a banked profile.
 
A narrow, crowded lap naturally prompts teams to default to a one-stop strategy here to protect track position. To militate against that, the speed limit in the similarly cramped pitlane has been raised from 60km/h to the standard 80km/h and Pirelli has gone a step softer in its tyre compounds.
 
The pitlane time loss is now 19 seconds rather than 22.
 
Even so, Saturday’s running made it clear most teams are targeting a one-stop race, even if it is theoretically slower than a two-stop; the speed advantage of the two-stop remains theoretical if your driver is stuck behind a one-stopper. But there is still room for surprise given the threat of rain, plus the intriguing possibilities provided by McLaren and Aston Martin having an extra set of hard-compound Pirellis available, while Max Verstappen risked compromising his Q3 performance to have a set of new softs in his pocket.
 
“All the teams are customising their strategy based on track position, grid position and other elements,” said Pirelli motorsport manager Mario Isola in his regular post-qualifying briefing.
 
“So we cannot make a strategy for each single car. We try to give a flavour, an idea of what can be the most popular strategy in the race.”

How tyre choice will pan out

Friday’s running indicated that the C4 soft tyre had a greater than expected step-up in grip relative to the C3 medium, while the hard-compound C2 behaved largely as expected – consistent over a long run, but not as quick. What proved intriguing was the relatively low levels of wear and thermal degradation, and absence of graining, even on the soft.
 
This brought the soft into the mix as a race tyre for a one-stop strategy, provided it was managed correctly.
 
“It was interesting to see that in FP3 they used quite a lot of tyres, more than usual,” said Isola. “I believe one reason for this decision is that yesterday [Friday] they realised that one-stop is feasible.
 
“On paper, it’s not a quick strategy. On paper, it was medium-hard-hard, a quick strategy where you can also push more.
 
“But considering how difficult it is to overtake here, a one-stop is a possibility. You protect your track position. You have flexibility because the weather forecast [for race day] is a chance of rain in the morning. And also at the start of the race it’s still 40% and maybe changing during the day.
 
“So they need flexibility. In any case, it’s interesting to observe that the soft compound could be used for a stint of the race. So if you start planning a strategy medium-hard and then you realise that the stints are not long enough – or for any reason you need an extra stint, even if you have only one set of hard and one set of medium – then you can use a soft at the end.
 
“If you plan from the beginning a strategy on a two-stop, then we believe that a soft-hard-medium is better. Because you have the advantage of a soft that is giving you more grip at the start of the race, then you develop the rest of the race with a hard and a medium.”

Rain could have more severe effect on grip levels than at other circuits

Rain falls in the Paddock

Photo by: Sam Bagnall / Sutton Images via Getty Images

Another of the themes this weekend has been the rapid track evolution and the different ‘reset’ effect caused by overnight rain. While it has been largely dry during the F1 track sessions, there was a severe thunderstorm on Friday night – depositing enough water to flood the access tunnel under the start-finish straight, and more rain overnight into Sunday.
 
Owing to the confines of this older track’s infrastructure, Formula 2 and F3 are absent from the support package at the Dutch GP. The only other track activity is F1 Academy and the Porsche Supercup, so the state of the track at the start of the grand prix is uncertain.
 
“What we found,” said Isola, “because we had rain also on Thursday, that there is quite a lot of sand coming into the track.
 
“Because you have many of the corners with some banking. The most popular are the last one and turn three, but also the other corners are not completely flat.
 
“So you have the water that is coming down and more sand that is coming down. And this is making the level of grip lower compared with other tracks.
 
“Usually this is creating more graining [but] here the mechanical resistance of the compound is quite good, even though we decided to come one step softer.
 
“Graining is an element that can play a role in the strategy. But looking at the tyres on Friday after the long runs, they started to run some high-fuel runs also in FP1 – because there was rain predicted for FP2, so they started running like an FP2 also in FP1. Then FP2 was dry, so they were running again.
 
“That’s why we have quite a lot of data for this race. The level of grip is probably lower if you have a reset of the track – but not really anything that could create graining on the tyre.”
 
As of Sunday morning, rain remains a possibility owing to the remnants of ex-Hurricane Erin passing over Northern Europe, bringing gusting winds and capricious cloud cells. Should it hit ahead of or during the race, it is likely to be of short duration but potentially heavy – which could bring disruption in the form of Safety Cars or even a red flag.

Could extra set of softs – and Hadjar – be Verstappen’s ‘secret weapon’?

Max Verstappen, Red Bull Racing

Photo by: Gabriele Lanzo / Alessio Morgese / NurPhoto via Getty Images

While all the McLaren and Aston Martin drivers have two sets of hards available (and Lance Stroll has three sets of softs, on account of his gyration into the barriers without completing a single timed lap in qualifying), Max Verstappen is an outlier in the top 10 since he has a new set of softs.
 
Softs, as Isola explained, give an element of flexibility. Given the outright pace deficit to McLaren, Verstappen’s only tactical option is to put Oscar Piastri and Lando Norris under pressure and make McLaren’s strategic options less straightforward.
 
If both McLarens are running together at the head of the field then they outnumber Verstappen, whose team-mate failed to make Q3. But if they can be separated, as happened in Hungary, it turns the screws on the papaya pitwall.
 
And while Verstappen doesn’t have team-mate Yuki Tsunoda with him, he has Isack Hadjar of the allied Racing Bulls team alongside on the grid. Hadjar has made it clear that following Max rather than passing him is the plan, “because overtaking him would be very bold and very difficult”.
 
Hadjar can also do Verstappen the favour of keeping George Russell’s Mercedes out of the picture. Russell is the most present threat to Verstappen; the Ferraris of Charles Leclerc and Lewis Hamilton, sixth and seventh on the grid, have been struggling all weekend and have just one set of new mediums each for the race, and a used set of hards.
 
“The feedback [from the teams] was quite good on the soft,” said Isola.
 
“They were expecting a much higher degradation and a one-lap tyre. It is a one-lap tyre if you look at qualifying. But when you have 10 cars within three-tenths of a second, any small difference is really making a difference in the grip, in the position.
 
“But if we consider the race and the fact that you manage the pace, the soft could be a good option. And the teams were, in my opinion, not expecting a soft that was so good.
 
“It’s not a matter of wear, it’s more how you manage the degradation that is defining the length of the stint.”
 
Little wonder McLaren team principal Andrea Stella sounded a note of caution, saying Verstappen’s set of softs “could be a pretty powerful weapon if you can deploy that weapon strategically at the right time”.