1. Territory
Russia occupies around a fifth of Ukraine after more than three years of fighting but continues to demand land. Earlier this week the Ukrainian president, Volodymyr Zelenskyy, said Russia wanted the rest of Donetsk oblast, 9,000 square kilometres of territory, in return for a ceasefire. Zelenskyy said Ukraine could not agree, particularly for so little in return. Ukraine’s public would also be unlikely to accept handing over more land to the invader.
Kyiv is willing to accept a ceasefire on the current frontlines, which would be followed by discussions about the future status of occupied territory. It is a particularly sensitive issue. Russia has sought formal recognition of at least some of the territory it has seized, most notably Crimea, but at best Ukraine is only likely to accept a de facto occupation. An alternative is that the status of occupied territories be parked for a future negotiation – “in 25 years time”, suggested John Foreman, a former British defence attache to Moscow.
2. Security guarantees
Russia says it wants Ukraine to be neutral, though in practice this means a weak neighbour with no ties to the west. In previous negotiations, still referenced by the Kremlin, it has demanded that Kyiv’s military be reduced to a token 50,000. It also still calls for the country to be “denazified”, interpreted as a call for the replacement of Zelenskyy.
Ukraine would like to join Nato, though this has been rejected by the US, leaving it searching for bilateral or multilateral security guarantees from its western allies. Britain and France have promised to lead a predominantly European “reassurance force” that will enter Ukraine in the event of a stable ceasefire, though Russia is opposed to this.
On Wednesday France’s president, Emmanuel Macron, said Trump had said the US was also prepared to be part of security guarantees to prevent war breaking out again. It is unclear what Trump is prepared to offer though, and a Japan or South Korea style bilateral guarantee looks unlikely. Meanwhile, unless Russia is prepared to accept that Ukraine can determine its own security arrangements, agreed progress appears impossible.
3. Sanctions and trade
Russia wants economic sanctions that have been imposed on Moscow to be lifted. Trump, however, can only speak for the US, with the UK and the EU likely to be more hostile, unless Ukraine has signed up to an overall peace agreement. The Kremlin also wants to go further, and today Putin’s adviser, Yuri Ushakov, said the leaders would discuss wider cooperation, “including in the trade and economic sphere”, as part of a proposed arrangement between the two countries. Without tangible progress on other topics, a unilateral relaxation of sanctions by the US would be surprising.
4. War crimes, reparations and reconstruction
War crimes and claims for reparations cannot be set aside as part of a peace agreement. The international criminal court (ICC) has an arrest warrant out against Putin over the forced transfer of about 20,000 children from Ukraine to Russia. Zelenskyy has asked that the youngsters are returned in the first stage of any peace discussions, but the ICC demand will not disappear. Ukraine “remains under an obligation to investigate war crimes and crimes against humanity against its own citizens”, says human rights lawyer Wayne Jordash.
The World Bank estimated that the total cost of reconstruction and recovery in Ukraine – where most of the war has been fought – amounts to €506bn (£4.35bn). After a resolution of the UN general assembly, a register for reparation claims has been set up by the Council of Europe to record eligible claims for compensation. However, Russia has so far refused to help fund reconstruction, leaving Ukraine to find alternative ways to fund its postwar rebuilding. An option is to seize Russian assets held abroad, amounting to around $280bn (£207bn), but achieving international consensus around seizure has been difficult.
5. Other issues
There are many other practical concerns. Ukraine is calling for the release of all prisoners of war alongside an initial ceasefire. Russia holds more than 8,000 Ukrainian PoWs and Ukraine a smaller amount, making one-for-one swaps tricky. But there have been dozens of exchanges since the start of the war, and this may be one of the simpler issues to agree upon.
Early in the war, Russia seized the Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant, the largest in Europe. Soon after it was shut down, but the site remains in Russian-held territory and there are signs that Russia wants to restart it and connect it to the country’s energy grid, a forced transfer that Ukraine will not recognise, but may be powerless to prevent.
