United States President Donald Trump and Russian dictator Vladimir Putin gather on Friday (15) at 11:30 am local time (4:30 pm Brasília) at the Elmendorf-Richardson military base in Alaska to discuss the war in Ukraine. The meeting takes place amid a scenario of strong disagreements between Washington, Moscow, Kiev and European countries.
The choice of Alaska is not casual. The US state, which has already belonged to the Russian Empire until it was sold to the US in 1867, occupies a strategic position in bilateral relations: it is the closest American region to Russia, separated by just 88 kilometers of sea, and houses important military facilities and radars from the US Aeropacial Defense System. During the Cold War, it was known as the “North Guardian” and key to monitoring possible Soviet raids.
In addition to historical symbolism, Alaska has increasing geopolitical relevance for its proximity to the Arctic and the Bering Strait, increasingly navigable with the melting of ice, which matters to global trade. The state is also rich in oil, natural gas and strategic minerals, reinforcing its weight in US energy safety.
Putin reaches the meeting seeking to break his international isolation. Trump, in turn, intends to personally listen to Kremlin’s conditions to end the conflict he began in 2022. The meeting will be a “recognition session,” according to the White House.
According to international news agencies, the Russian proposal of “Peace”, which Putin should take to Trump, includes the formal attachment of four regions currently occupied illegally by Moscow – Donetsk, Luhansk, Kherson and Zaporizehzia – besides Crimea, attached in 2014. Conflict, a position supported by European leaders such as Emmanuel Macron (France), Giorgia Meloni (Italy), Keir Stmerer (United Kingdom) and Friedrich Merz (Germany). However, in recent days, Trump has indicated that he was willing to discuss territorial exchanges to end the conflict.
“There may be good and bad things to both sides,” said the White House.
The absence of Zelensky at this meeting in Alaska has worried the European Union, which also fears being left out of initial negotiations by the end of the Russian invasion.
On Tuesday (12), the head of European Union diplomacy, Kaja Kallas, told the American station CNBC that Putin is going to Alaska just to “pretend he wants to negotiate” and that the meeting with President Trump has as his main objective as a “personal victory” for the Russian leader.
“He just wants to have a picture with President Trump,” said Kallas, adding that without the presence of Kiev and Europe, “Kremlin just wants to postpone the sanctions” imposed by the West.
Experts from think tank Council on Foreign Relations (CFR) pointed out in analysis released on the institution’s website that the meeting between Trump and Putin could result in a script for principles for future negotiations – without immediately resolving disagreements about Ukrainian security and sovereignty.
“What may get out of this meeting is an agreement of principles that set parameters for a final hit. This does not change Putin’s position, but it advances to what Kremlin has been looking for for seven months from the Trump administration,” said Thomas Graham, CRF expert.
During a virtual meeting on Wednesday (13) with European allies, Zelensky and NATO, Trump indicated that the search for a ceasefire in war will be his priority at the meeting with Putin. Democratic Senator Richard Blumenthal stated on social networks that if the Republican president “remains firm and insisting on a ceasefire with security guarantees and European participation” at this meeting, he could achieve something that “will earn him the Nobel Peace Prize.”
Also after the meeting, France President Emmanuel Macron said that Trump had told European allies that “Ukraine -belonging territories cannot be negotiated and can only be negotiated by the Ukrainian President.”
Pressure for sanctions
It is expected that, with this meeting, Russia finally decides to negotiate the end of the conflict. However, if there is no advances-even after Friday’s conversations-President Donald Trump has already warned that Moscow will face “very severe consequences” if the dictator Putin does not accept a ceasefire.
Asked if it would be new sanctions or tariffs, Trump disconcerted: “Needless to say. [Mas] There will be very severe consequences. ” Before, the White House had considered to impose 100% tariff on Russian imports and secondary tariff on the same level against countries that buy Moscow, having already started measures against India due to importation and resale of Russian oil.
“Oil and gas are the vital blood of the Russian economy and finance its military complex,” said Heidi Crebo-Rediker of CFR.
Russia at this time faces economic difficulties with drop in energy revenues, reduced exports to Europe and weakening of state companies such as Gazprom. However, Kremlin’s calculation still bets on Ukraine’s military and political wear and tear and the weakening of Western unity before feeling the full effects of sanctions.
