The Federation of Industries of the State of Minas Gerais today released a study on the economic impacts of the tariff imposed by US President Donald Trump. The measure comes into force tomorrow and imposes additional 40% tariffs on several Brazilian products that have been under 10% tariffs since April.
Despite the exemption granted to 694 products, about 45% of the value exported by Brazil to the US market, the effects on the national economy can be devastating.
The simulation made by FIEMG points out that the imposition of the fare can reduce Brazilian GDP by $ 25.8 billion in the short term and up to $ 110 billion in the long run. Family income loss can reach R $ 2.74 billion in up to two years, in addition to the reduction of 146,000 formal and informal jobs.
The most affected industrial sectors, according to the study, will be the steel, the manufacture of wood, shoe products and machines and mechanical equipment. In agriculture, the impact should be on livestock, especially the beef chain, which follows outside the exemption list.
For Fiemg President Flávio Roscoe, the moment requires maturity and institutional dialogue. “The imposition of these tariffs, although partially softened by exemptions, was unilateral and without negotiation with the Brazilian government. It is essential that Brazil acts diplomatically to expand the number of exempt products, preserve its competitiveness in the international market and protect national jobs and investments.”
According to the Minas Gerais federation, Brazil exported approximately US $ 40.4 billion to the US in 2024, equivalent to 1.8% of national GDP. Half of this value is focused on mineral fuels, iron and steel, and machines and equipment, sectors directly affected by new tariffs.
