Oil falls after US-Iran ceasefire proposal

Oil prices fell this Monday morning (6) amid negotiations between the United States and Iran. Investors remain cautious given the risk of prolonged interruptions in the global supply of the raw material. At around 9:45 am (Brasília time), a barrel of Brent oil, an international reference, rose 0.33%, to US$ 108.67. West Texas Intermediate (WTI), used as a reference in the USA, fell 0.86%, to US$ 110.58 per barrel. 🗒️Do you have any reporting suggestions? Send it to g1 The fluctuations reflect the uncertainty surrounding the war and diplomatic negotiations. The US and Iran received a draft proposal to end the conflict, but Tehran rejected the immediate reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, one of the most important oil transport routes in the world. The American response came next. President Donald Trump said he could “rain hell” on the country if a deal is not reached by the end of Tuesday. The Iranian government said it had defined its own positions and demands in response to the ceasefire proposals presented by intermediaries. See the videos that are trending on g1 Strait of Hormuz remains partially closed The Strait of Hormuz is one of the most important maritime routes for transporting oil in the world. Shipments pass through it from countries such as Iraq, Saudi Arabia, Qatar, Kuwait and the United Arab Emirates. Since the start of the war on February 28, the passage has remained largely blocked following Iranian attacks on vessels in the region. Even so, some ships have returned to crossing the strait in recent days. Navigation data indicates that an Omani-operated oil tanker, a French-owned container ship and a Japanese gas carrier have passed through the route since Thursday. The move reflects Iran’s policy of allowing the passage of vessels from countries considered diplomatically closer. For analyst Ole Hvalbye, from SEB Research, the market is still trying to assess the possible effects of the situation. “The market is trying to understand what to expect from now on. The main news over the weekend was that some ships managed to cross the strait,” he said. According to him, the dispute for oil has also changed the global supply flow, with Europe losing part of its cargo to Asia in a scenario of more restricted supply. Refineries look for oil in other regions With the interruption of exports from the Middle East, refineries started looking for oil in other regions, mainly in the USA and the North Sea, a producing area close to the United Kingdom. This movement increased competition for available cargo. As a result, premiums paid in the spot market for American WTI crude reached record levels, driven by the dispute between Asian and European refiners. In India, refineries even postponed scheduled maintenance shutdowns to ensure enough fuel to meet domestic demand. OPEC+ tries to increase production Amid the scenario of uncertainty, OPEC+ — a group that brings together countries from the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries and allies such as Russia — decided to increase production by 206 thousand barrels per day starting in May. Still, analysts estimate that the impact of this measure may be limited as long as the conflict continues to affect global oil trade. “OPEC’s moves appear to face limitations related to the availability of exports,” said Janiv Shah, an analyst at consultancy Rystad. Saudi Arabia also raised the official selling price of Arab Light oil to Asia in May. The value was set at a record premium of US$19.50 per barrel above the Oman/Dubai reference average — an increase of US$17 compared to the previous month, according to state-owned Aramco. Russian supply also faces disruptions In addition to tensions in the Middle East, Russian supplies have also suffered recent disruptions following Ukrainian drone attacks on export terminals in the Baltic Sea. According to press reports on Sunday, the Ust-Luga terminal resumed loading on Saturday after several days of shutdown. At the same time, exports from the Black Sea port of Tuapse are expected to rise to 794 thousand metric tons in April. The volume represents a daily increase of 8.7% compared to the 755,000 tonnes forecast for March, according to two traders and Reuters calculations. Petrobras discovers high-quality oil in the Campos Basin Reuters/Bruno Domingos

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