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The Central Bank’s Monetary Policy Committee (Copom) releases this Wednesday (18) the new basic rate amid pressure from the war in the Middle East and the increase in fuel prices.
Financial market experts disagree about the reduction in the Selic. Before the conflict, the forecast was for a drop of at least 0.5 percentage points. However, the expectation is that the change will be smoother, with a reduction of 0.25 percentage points.
In January, the committee maintained the rate at its current level, the highest since 2006, for the fifth consecutive time. Market analysts’ estimate for the base rate in 2027 and 2028 is that the Selic will be reduced to 10.5% per year and 10% per year, respectively.
