Iran’s participation in this summer’s World Cup appears to change on an almost hourly basis. US president Donald Trump caused more confusion on Thursday by saying he did not believe it “is appropriate that they be there, for their own life and safety”.
The incendiary post on Truth Social came less than 48 hours after Fifa’s president, Gianni Infantino, said Trump had told him in a meeting at the White House on Tuesday evening that Iran would be “welcome” at the World Cup. Hours later, Iran’s football federation posted its response on Instagram, stating: “No one can exclude Iran’s national team from the World Cup” and going on to say that the US should be removed as host due to Trump’s implicit threat.
On Wednesday, Iran’s sports minister, Ahmad Donyamali, told state media that his country would not take part. “Under no circumstances do we have the appropriate conditions to participate in the World Cup,” Donyamali said.
So what is really going on, and when will the saga be resolved?
Could Fifa remove Iran?
There is no modern-day precedent for a team withdrawing or being removed from a World Cup. The closest parallel is the 1992 European Championship, when Uefa replaced Yugoslavia 10 days before the tournament in Sweden after the United Nations imposed sanctions due to the war in the Balkans. Their replacements, Denmark, famously went on to win Euro 92 after the players were summoned from their summer holidays.
Multiple sources at Fifa have told the Guardian that no decision on Iran’s World Cup involvement has been made, with the world governing body giving itself until its annual Congress in Vancouver on 30 April to reach a conclusion.
Fifa’s official position remains that it wants Iran to take part, with its general secretary, Mattias Grafström, saying last week that “our focus is to have a safe World Cup with everybody participating”.
Fifa’s statutes strictly mandate political and religious neutrality, so it will do everything it can to avoid an Iranian withdrawal, and will certainly not want to be seen to have played a role in forcing them out, despite Infantino’s desire to stay close to Trump.
Fifa did ban Iran from taking part in the Asian qualifying competition for the 1986 World Cup after they refused to play home matches on neutral territory, which was a punishment for their refusal to play against Kuwait in qualifiers for the 1982 tournament.
Could Iran withdraw and would there be consequences?
There was a seemingly significant softening of Iran’s stance before Trump waded into the debate again on Thursday, with multiple publications among the country’s state media reporting that no decision to withdraw had been made, and even expressing surprise at Donyamali’s comments. Although Donyamali’s views carry weight as a minister, the ultimate decision will be made at a higher level of government.
Under Fifa statutes, member associations are not permitted to withdraw from its competitions, and Iran would face disciplinary sanctions if they did so. No country has pulled out of the World Cup after the draw was made since France and India did not take part in 1950, citing travel costs.
Fifa has protections in its tournament rules, which sources have told the Guardian would be upheld. The regulations state that withdrawing before the tournament incurs a fine of between €275,000 and €555,000 ($316,000-$640,000), depending on the date of the withdrawal. It would also trigger a referral to Fifa’s disciplinary committee, which could impose sporting sanctions, including a ban from tournaments.
“The Fifa disciplinary committee may impose additional disciplinary measures, taking into account in particular the timing of the withdrawal or exclusion, the seriousness of the infringement that led to the inadmission or exclusion, possible mitigating factors and any other relevant circumstances,” the regulations state. “These disciplinary sanctions may include the exclusion of the association concerned from a future Fifa competition or the replacement of that association by another.”
Who could replace Iran if they are no longer in the competition?
Fifa’s World Cup regulations are vague on replacing a team that have qualified for the finals, stating only that it has “sole discretion” to “take whatever action is deemed necessary”, and that it “may decide to replace the participating member association in question with another association”.
Iraq and the United Arab Emirates are viewed as the most likely beneficiaries should Iran withdraw because they are the next highest-ranked teams from the Asian Football Confederation (AFC) not to have qualified, but any swap would likely not be straightforward.
Iran secured their World Cup place by winning Group A of the third round of AFC qualifying, with the UAE losing a playoff against Iraq, whose reward was a place in an intercontinental playoff on 31 March against Bolivia or Suriname in Monterrey, from which the winners will reach the finals.
As revealed by the Guardian last weekend, however, Iraq have asked Fifa to postpone that game because most of their squad are stranded in Baghdad with airspace closed due to the war.
Replacing Iran with Iraq may appear an obvious solution but would have political ramifications. The UAE, a close strategic ally of the US and an economic powerhouse, are also believed to be lobbying Fifa to be awarded Iran’s place should it become available.
