The war in the Middle East and the resulting spike in oil prices on the international market could become a strategic advantage for an unexpected actor: Russia.
At the same time as the rising price of a barrel of oil gives dictator Vladimir Putin financial breathing room in his invasion of Ukraine, the conflict in Iran drains the United States’ military focus away from the war in Eastern Europe.
The world’s second-largest oil exporter, Russia is under Western sanctions over the war in Ukraine. The country, however, can benefit from a eventual sanctions relief in the energy sector which is being evaluated by the President of the United States, Donald Trump, after a barrel of oil reached US$100.
Last week, the United States had previously granted Indian refiners a 30-day exemption from sanctions for purchasing Russian oilaccording to the Reuters news agency. The measure may be expanded to other nations in the short term.
In that context, Putin said in a meeting with advisers, ministers and business leaders earlier this week that it was “important for Russian energy companies to seize the current moment.” He also suggested at the time that the European Union could rethink its plans to reduce dependence on Russian energy in the long term.
New resources to finance the prolonged invasion of Ukraine
Russia has been struggling economically to keep pace on the battlefield with Ukraine, especially due to Western sanctions. The cost of the war is being paid by Russian citizens, who are seeing the prices of basic goods rise drastically.
The country’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in 2025 grew just 0.5%, considered the worst performance since the start of the war, in 2022. The growth forecast for this year is slightly higher – the International Monetary Fund (IMF) predicts an increase of 0.8%.
Eduardo Galvão, specialist in political risk and professor at Ibmec Brasília, pointed out People’s Gazette what Russia finances much of its war machine with oil and gaswhich represent a relevant portion of federal budget revenues.
“Every additional dollar in the barrel improves Moscow’s ability to sustain the military effort in Ukraine,” he warns.
It remains unclear how much Russia would benefit from a crisis in global oil supplies. If it is a matter of weeks of war, the effect may be minimal, but if the conflict extends for months, the Russian economy may reap longer-term rewards.
Galvão highlights that this possible sanctions relief does not mean that Putin is “winning” the war in Ukraine. According to him, these simultaneous conflicts tend to redistribute costs and priorities in the international system and, in a scenario of expensive oil and a fragmented international agenda, Russia is able to breathe a little more in a war that is, above all, a contest of economic and industrial resistance.
Ukraine bails out US in Middle East as it struggles to maintain Trump’s “sympathy”
In addition to the potential war financing advantage that Russia can gain, the war in the Middle East drains attention from Ukraine’s main allies against Russia: the United States and Europe. There are also concern about the diversion of military resources from the West to a new combat front.
According to analysts at think tank Globsec, Marcin Zaborowski and Tomáš Nagy, concern about American weapons stocks destined for Ukraine has been occurring since before the Epic Fury operation in Iran. In an article published this week, they recall that last July, the US Secretary of Defense, Pete Hegseth, had already suspended a shipment of weapons to Ukraine with the aim of preserving American ammunition reserves.
Now, with the war on Iran, the depletion of key American stockpiles of precision munitions is accelerating, Zaborowski and Nagy say. The authors especially cite the Patriot interceptors, used in Ukraine’s anti-aircraft defense.
Last week, Trump stated that defense companies are producing weapons under “emergency orders” to meet demand caused by the war against Iran.
Meanwhile, Russia continues its campaign, with attacks on points of Ukrainian infrastructure. “Moscow calculates that American distraction in the Middle East reduces the credibility of US threats to increase pressure on Russia if peace negotiations fail,” analysts warn.
The Ukrainian government, in turn, is collaborating with the US in the war against Iran. The country sent interceptor drones and a group of experts to the Middle East in recent days to assist in the downing of drones produced by Iran, following a request for help from the US, according to President Volodymyr Zelensky in an interview with The New York Times.
Kiev learned to deal with Iranian military equipment during the four years of war in Eastern Europe, creating its own defense weapons to combat them. Now, it seeks to gain points with the USA in the American-mediated peace negotiations, which were paralyzed with the start of a new war.
Despite the Ukrainian mobilization, President Donald Trump has shown himself more inclined to negotiate with the Russian dictator, with whom he kept in touch this week by phone to talk about the ongoing wars.
At the time, Trump reported that he told Putin that he could be “even more useful” if he helped end the war between Russia and Ukraine. In turn, the Kremlin highlighted the conversation that the Russian leader presented “several proposals” for a quick political-diplomatic settlement in the Iranian conflict.
Despite this context, There is a negative side to the war against Iran for Russia: the potential long-term weakening of military cooperation between the Kremlin and the Iranian regime.
According to Zaborowski and Nagy, Iran has supplied thousands of Shahed series attack drones to Russia, which have been used in attacks against Ukraine.
“A weakened or destabilized Iranian state will produce fewer drones, less ballistic missile technology and have a reduced ability to sustain the Russia-Iran defense partnership. In the broader perspective of the war, this is strategically relevant. However, it does not resolve Ukraine’s current crisis of attention, materials and diplomacy,” analysts assess.
Rising oil prices mobilize countries to release the largest oil reserves in history
The International Energy Agency (IEA) announced that it must recommend to its member countries the release of 400 million barrels of oil to contain instability in the international energy market – the largest release of oil reserves in history.
The members of the G7 (a group made up of the USA, Japan, Germany, France, the United Kingdom, Italy and Canada) announced this Wednesday (11) that they support the adoption of “proactive measures” by the IEA to deal with the situation. The seven richest countries in the world have indicated that they are ready to take all necessary measures in coordination with members of the international agency.
French Finance Minister Roland Lescure, who chaired the meeting of G7 energy ministers, said the aim of the decision is to send a very clear message that if the Strait of Hormuz cannot be opened immediately, these strategic reserves will be used.
