Iran says it cannot play in the World Cup under ‘any circumstances’: the impacts of the conflict with the USA on the most politicized World Cup in recent times

US President Donald Trump and FIFA President Gianni Infantino have formed a close relationship EPA via BBC In just over three months’ time, the United States will be one of three host countries for the men’s soccer World Cup. And Iran is one of the teams qualified for the dispute. At the end of February, the United States attacked Iran, in a joint operation with Israel that is still ongoing, sparking a war across the Persian Gulf. What could the conflict mean for the countries involved, for FIFA and for a World Cup that was already highly politicized? Will Iran still compete in the World Cup? Iran’s Sports Minister says the team will not participate in the World Cup This Wednesday (11/3), the Sports Minister, Ahmad Donyamali, said that Iran will not be able to participate in the 2026 World Cup after the American attacks and the death of the supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. “Considering that this corrupt regime murdered our leader, under no circumstances can we participate in the World Cup,” the minister told Iranian state television. “Our children are not safe and, fundamentally, such conditions for participation do not exist,” Donyamali said. “Given the malicious actions they took against Iran, they imposed two wars on us in eight or nine months and killed and martyred thousands of our citizens. Therefore, we certainly cannot have such a presence.” The previous day, the FIFA president had said that American President Donald Trump said that Iran would be “welcome” to compete in the World Cup. This would be the fourth consecutive World Cup with Iran’s participation. Their three group stage games are scheduled for the United States: against New Zealand and Belgium, in Los Angeles, and against Egypt, in Seattle. Iran did not give up the competition last year when the United States bombed three Iranian nuclear facilities. Before the Sports Minister’s statements, the president of the Iranian football federation had already raised doubts about the country’s participation in the World Cup. “With what happened… and with that US attack, it is unlikely that we will be able to look at the World Cup in front of us, but the sport’s leaders are the ones who must make the decision,” Mehdi Taj was quoted as saying on Iranian television. Amid the death of Iran’s supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei (1939-2026), and the immense uncertainties about the country’s future political scenario, it is impossible to predict what this decision will be — and even who will make it. “For Tehran, this is not a short 12-day war, nor a contained escalation that can be paused and then restarted,” said Sanam Vakil, director of the Middle East and North Africa Program at international affairs think tank Chatham House. For her, “this new stage of conflict is existential and clearly about the survival of the regime. It is also unlikely to end quickly.” FIFA, which governs world football, declared that it was following the events. But right now, officials are privately saying they hope Iran will participate in the World Cup. On Saturday (1/3), FIFA’s general secretary, Mattias Grafstrom, declared that “our objective is to have a safe World Cup, with everyone’s participation”. According to FIFA rules, in the event of a team’s withdrawal or exclusion, the entity may “take any action it deems necessary” and “may decide to replace the participating association with another.” BBC Sport contacted FIFA, asking for clarification on suggestions that Iran could be replaced by another team from the Asian Football Confederation (AFC). If that happens, the favorites would be Iraq, who could still win a place in the intercontinental playoff to be played at the end of this month, or the United Arab Emirates, who were disqualified in the qualifiers. Iran’s men’s soccer team celebrates qualifying for the 2026 World Cup, after drawing with Uzbekistan, in March last year Getty Images via BBC ‘We are in uncharted territory’ American President Donald Trump signed an executive order last year banning citizens from 12 countries, including Iran, from entering the United States. The reason given was an attempt to manage threats to American security. The players and technical staff of the teams that will compete in the World Cup are exceptions, but Iran threatened to boycott the World Cup draw, held in Washington in December, when visa applications from some of its authorities were rejected. But if Iran plays in the World Cup, there will likely be even greater scrutiny regarding the security of the team’s games and Iran’s planned training base in Arizona. The Iranian team’s games at the 2022 World Cup in Qatar took place against a backdrop of mass protests against the government in Iran. The matches included a 1-0 defeat against the USA. In the Iranian team’s second match, against Wales, there were clashes between fans with opposing views on the country’s government. And, considering Trump’s hopes for a possible regime change in Iran, it is possible that a similar situation will occur at this year’s World Cup. After all, Los Angeles, which will host two Iranian matches, is home to one of the largest Iranian communities on the planet. “We are in uncharted territory, just over three months away from the start of the World Cup and with the hosts launching a war of aggression against a participating country,” says Nick McGeehan of human rights group FairSquare. “If Iran withdraws its team from the World Cup (a decision that seems entirely plausible), FIFA will probably breathe a sigh of relief, considering the possibility of protests and riots.” Even if Iran does not attend, tensions could rise, especially considering the event will be part of celebrations marking the 250th anniversary of the US Declaration of Independence. Trump is expected to be a very visible presence at the event, as was the case at the Club World Cup in football and the Ryder Cup in golf last year. The conflict began just days after US government officials were warned that there could be “catastrophic” security consequences if the 11 US host cities do not receive money that has been frozen amid a partial government shutdown. It is said that the preparation schedule is behind schedule. There are also growing concerns about the possibility of using authorities from the United States Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) during the tournament and with an outbreak of cartel violence in Mexico, a neighboring country and the other host of the World Cup. Additionally, relations between the United States and third-party host Canada have also been strained, with Trump imposing a series of import tariffs on its northern neighbor. Over the weekend (2/28-1/3), the head of the White House World Cup task force, Andrew Giuliani, praised Trump’s attacks on Iran. He posted on social media that his actions would “make the world a safe place.” “We’ll take care of football tomorrow,” he added. “Tonight, we celebrate the Iranian people’s chance for freedom.” But the conflict in the Middle East is likely to increase criticism of FIFA president Gianni Infantino over his close relationship with Donald Trump. And the FIFA ‘Peace Prize’? During the draw for the 2026 World Cup groups, Donald Trump received the FIFA ‘Peace Prize’ from Gianni Infantino Reuters via BBC In December, FIFA awarded Donald Trump his first “Peace Prize” during the 2026 World Cup draw ceremony. The organization declared that the American president “played a fundamental role” in establishing a ceasefire between Israel and the Palestinians, in addition to seeking to put an end to others conflicts. Since awarding the award, the United States has carried out military actions in Venezuela, Nigeria and Iran, in addition to indicating possible operations in Greenland, Mexico (another World Cup host country) and Colombia, which is also participating in the tournament. In January, Trump also told Cuba to “make a deal” or face the consequences. Trump has intensely defended his foreign policy. He insists he is acting in the interests of the United States. Last month, Infantino defended the awarding of the “Peace Prize”. He even attended the first meeting of the American president’s Peace Council, wearing a Trump-themed cap, with the inscriptions “USA” and “45-47” (Trump, with two non-consecutive terms, is the 45th and 47th American president). Donald Trump’s decision to attack Iran was supported and condemned. But what is certain is that it will generate greater scrutiny over FIFA’s decision to align itself with the American president. Critics argue that this position created the risk of politicization of the body that governs world football. In January, 27 British politicians from Labour, Liberal Democrats, the Green Party and Plaid Cymru (the Wales Party) signed a motion in the national parliament calling on sporting organizations to consider expulsion of the United States from major international competitions, including the football World Cup. The motion states that these events “should not be used to legitimize or normalize violations of international law by powerful states.” Also last month, a German Football Association official declared that it is time to consider a boycott of the 2026 World Cup in light of Donald Trump’s actions. These demands may be repeated. And the Persian Gulf states can also call for Iran to be punished for retaliatory attacks on their territory. FIFA maintains that, as an organizer of football events, its statutory obligation is to remain neutral. In this sense, Infantino declared last year that FIFA “cannot solve geopolitical problems”, amid pressure to sanction Israel, when a United Nations commission concluded that the country committed genocide against Palestinians in the Gaza Strip. The Israeli Foreign Ministry categorically rejected the report as “false and distorted”. Some critics believe that FIFA’s rules should be strengthened so that the entity can react appropriately to serious geopolitical events. And this is not the first time that the organization has come under pressure due to actions taken by a World Cup host country. In 2018, the tournament was held in Russia, four years after the country annexed the Crimean peninsula. Russia has also been accused of cyberattacks, interference in Western elections and carrying out the Novichok nerve agent attack in Salisbury, United Kingdom. Russia ended up banned from FIFA in 2022, after the invasion of Ukraine. Several European countries refused to compete against the country. But Infantino recently declared that the punishment did not work. The entity’s president stated that he wants to consider suspending the measure and changing FIFA’s statute to avoid boycotts. Certainly, there is no sign that he has any willingness to create sanctions against the United States, however controversial American foreign policy may be. What is clear is that, in recent days, what was already a complicated political scenario for the World Cup has transformed into an even greater challenge.

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