How China uses pandas and ‘grey zone warfare’ to increase pressure on Japan

Beijing has increased pressure on Japan in recent months Getty Images/via BBC Last month, thousands of Japanese said a tearful goodbye to panda bears Xiao Xiao and Lei Lei at Tokyo’s Ueno Zoo before they were flown back to China. Their departure left Japan without Chinese pandas for the first time in decades and became one of the symbols of the recent deterioration in relations between the two countries. Recent comments by Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi have taken her country’s relations with China to their lowest level in years, causing Beijing to increase its pressure on Tokyo in several sectors. China sent warships, restricted exports of rare earths, curbed Chinese tourism to the country, canceled shows and, finally, brought back its pandas that were in Japan. Takaichi is now starting a new term as prime minister, after the historic support she received in the recent early elections. See the videos that are trending on g1 As a result, analysts warn that China and Japan will face difficulties in reducing tensions and that bilateral relations will not recover in the near future. The disputes began in November, when Takaichi apparently suggested that Japan would activate its self-defense forces in the event of an attack on Taiwan. China considers the self-ruled island of Taiwan a rebel province and has not ruled out using force to “reunify” it one day. Taiwan has had an independent government for decades and counts the United States as a key ally. Washington pledged to help the island defend itself. In January, thousands of people lined up at Ueno Zoo, in Japan, to say goodbye to pandas Lei Lei (photo) and Xiao Xiao, who returned to China as a result of increased tensions between the two countries Soichiro Koriyama/EPA/Shutterstock The concern, for a long time, is that a possible attack on Taiwan could result in a direct military conflict between the United States and China and spread to other American allies in the region, such as Japan and the Philippines. The Taiwan issue is a fundamental red line for China. Beijing reacts furiously to any comments perceived as “external interference” and insists that this is a matter of sovereignty, which only China alone can decide. Almost immediately after Takaichi’s statements, Beijing responded with a wave of condemnation and demanded his retraction. Observers highlighted that Takaichi’s comments were in line with the Japanese government’s stance and repeated what other Japanese leaders had stated in the past. The difference is that this was the first time that a Japanese prime minister in office expressed this opinion. On the other hand, Takaichi refused to apologize or retract his comments. Analysts indicate that this stance is probably justified by the solid electoral support it has obtained. Takaichi stated that she would be more cautious when commenting on specific scenarios. And his government sent high-ranking diplomats to meet with their Chinese counterparts. But these measures did not help calm Chinese anger. The ‘grey zone war’ Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi’s comments about Taiwan caused a strong reaction from Beijing Getty Images/via BBC Faced with Takaichi’s firm denial, China steadily increased its pressure on Japan. There have been other disputes between the two countries in recent decades, fueled by their historic animosity. But this time, the situation is different, according to analysts. China has increased its pressure on “many more fronts,” according to Robert Ward, chairman of Japanese affairs at the International Institute for Strategic Studies think tank. For him, this is diffuse, low-level pressure, similar to the “gray zone war” waged against Taiwan. Its goal would be to “wear down the opponent to normalize things that are actually not normal.” In the diplomatic field, Beijing filed complaints with the United Nations and postponed a trilateral summit that would have taken place between China, Japan and South Korea. China also tried to involve other parties in the dispute. Beijing asked for the adhesion of the United Kingdom and France and, in parallel, calls on its allies Russia and North Korea to denounce Japan. On the weekend of February 14-15, Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi invoked Japan’s history of aggression during the Second World War (1939-1945) when addressing Western leaders during the Munich Security Conference in Germany. He called Takaichi’s statements a “very dangerous advance.” In the military sphere, Japan declared that China sent drones and warships close to its islands and that its fighter jets fixed radars on Japanese planes. Additionally, coast guard ships from the two countries clashed near the disputed Senkaku/Diaoyu islands. And the week before, Japanese authorities seized a Chinese fishing vessel. But what is clear is that China also wants to hit Japan in a vulnerable spot: the economy. Economic measures Beijing has imposed restrictions on exports to Japan of dual-use technologies, which can be used for civil and military purposes. They include rare earths and critical minerals. The measure was considered a form of economic coercion. China has also warned its citizens to avoid Japan for their studies and vacations. Flights were canceled on 49 routes to Japan, causing a reduction in tourism and a drop in the value of certain shares in the tourism and retail sector. Chinese citizens represent 25% of all foreign tourists visiting Japan, according to official figures. Not even entertainment and culture escaped the diplomatic crisis. Japanese music events in China have been cancelled. In one of them, a singer was hastily removed from the stage in the middle of the performance. Film distributors have also postponed the release of several Japanese films in China. The Pokémon franchise itself, one of the most famous Japanese cultural phenomena abroad, was also the subject of criticism in relation to a card game event that should have taken place in January, at the Yasukuni Shrine, in Tokyo. The temple honors Japanese people killed on battlefields, including some whom China considers war criminals. The event ended up being cancelled. On social media, Chinese nationalists launched online attacks against Takaichi. They included the release of artificial intelligence-generated videos showing pop culture figure Ultraman and anime character Detective Conan fighting the prime minister. But, in general, China took less provocative measures this time, compared to previous conflicts with Japan, according to Bonny Lin and Kristi Govella of the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS). “To date, its economic and military response has been relatively limited compared to the past,” they stated in a recent analysis, “but there is ample scope for further escalation.” China may also be refraining from taking too tough a stance on Japan. After all, Beijing is “actively positioning itself as the guardian of the post-World War II order.” China wants to be seen as a responsible power compared to the United States, according to Ward. High tension Observers agree that if tensions calm down, they will likely stabilize at a higher level than before. The two parties are less likely to reduce tensions this time, according to Lin and Govella in their analysis. China is now a much stronger power and “Taiwan is the center of Chinese interests, which means Beijing is more likely to adopt a hard-line stance than in previous episodes.” Lin and Govella also state that “Beijing deeply distrusts Takaichi and is likely to view his attempts to reduce tensions without explicitly retracting his comments as hypocrisy — or, even worse, as strategically fallacious.” At the same time, Japan has a greater interest in remaining firm, especially after Takaichi’s resounding electoral victory, which “it will interpret as a reaffirmation of its stance towards China”, according to Ward. Govella told the BBC that Takaichi would likely use his victory as “political capital” to promote economic and defense policies that will strengthen Japan’s position. Takaichi has pledged to increase Japan’s defense spending to 2% of GDP two years ahead of schedule, complete a review of key security strategies by the end of this year and soon launch a stimulus package for the country’s economy. For its part, China “considers that Takaichi is a very strong leader and that the pressure campaign could simply strengthen her at the national level. Therefore, it is possible that they will not intensify their pressure very much”, according to Kiyoteru Tsutsui, an expert on Japan and director of the Shorenstein Asia-Pacific Research Center at Stanford University, in the United States. “So this song will probably keep playing for some time,” he predicts. Trump’s influence An imponderable factor could be the strong support given to Takaichi, until now, by the president of the United States, Donald Trump. He even declared his support, which is unusual, in the moments leading up to early elections in Japan. But many expect relations between the United States and China to intensify even further this year, according to Tsutsui. Several meetings are scheduled between Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping, including the American president’s state visit to Beijing in April. And compared to previous incidents, the United States’ reaction to the latest confrontation “has so far been moderate, which may strengthen China,” according to Lin and Govella. “The Japanese are afraid that Xi and Trump will reach a big deal,” says Ward. On the weekend of 14-15/2, the United States and Japan reaffirmed their relations during the Munich Security Conference, in a meeting between the American Secretary of State, Marco Rubio, and the Japanese Minister of Foreign Affairs, Toshimitsu Motegi. Takaichi also hopes to meet with Trump again in March, during his visit to Washington, ahead of the US president’s trip to China. As Beijing continues to increase its pressure, Tokyo will likely “redouble” its efforts to take on a larger share of defense spending shared with Washington and “will actually work more closely with them to ensure that the United States doesn’t pull away and lose interest in the region,” according to Ward. Videos See video from December 2025 about tension between China and Japan: Chinese minister says Japan is threatening China militarily

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