The International Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS), a London-based think tank specializing in international security, geopolitics and military capabilities, published an analysis on Monday (16) showing that China significantly expanded its production of nuclear submarines between 2021 and 2025, surpassing the United States in the number of launches and in tonnage in the period – an indicator that measures the size and capacity of the vessels.
According to the report, Beijing launched ten nuclear submarines over a five-year period, totaling around 79,000 tons, while the United States launched seven units, totaling approximately 55,500 tons in the same period. According to the IISS, this is a drastic change compared to the previous cycle, when American production surpassed Chinese production.
According to the analysis, the expansion was driven by the increase in industrial capacity at the state-owned Bohai Shipbuilding Heavy Industry Co. shipyard, located in the city of Huludao, in northern China. Commercial satellite images evaluated by the IISS indicate that the state-owned company is actively investing in the construction and launch of new Type-094 (nuclear ballistic) and Type-093B (guided missile) class submarines.
The IISS points out that the Type-094 are part of the strengthening of the Chinese nuclear triad — made up of land-based intercontinental missiles, strategic bombers and ballistic missile-launching submarines. The Type-093B would be improved versions, possibly equipped with a vertical launch system for guided missiles, which, according to the think tank, expands China’s naval offensive capacity.
Despite the quantitative growth, the IISS assesses that Chinese submarines still present qualitative differences in relation to American and European models, especially in terms of technological sophistication and noise levels, a relevant factor for deterrence operations.
The analysis was echoed by the American broadcaster CNN, which highlighted that, although the United States still maintains a large advantage in the total number of nuclear submarines – 65 units against 12 Chinese active at the beginning of last year -, the accelerated pace of launches by Beijing could increase strategic pressure on Washington in the coming years.
According to the IISS, the increase in the number of Chinese submarines in operation represents a growing challenge for the United States and its allies, which, according to the think tank, face certain delays in expanding their own naval production.
