Key events
Yen falls after GDP report
Japan’s currency has weakened following today’s GDP report showing weaker-than-expected growth at the end of last year.
Lee Hardman, currency expert at MUFG bankexplains:
After hitting a low of 152.27 at the end of last week, USD/JPY has risen back above the 153.00-level. The main trigger for the partial reversal of yen strength has been the release of the weaker than expected Q4 GDP report from Japan.
The report revealed that Japan’s economy expanded by an annualized rate of just 0.2% in Q4 following a downwardly revised contraction of -2.6% in Q3.
For the calendar year as a whole, Japan’s economy expanded by 1.1% after contracting marginally by -0.2% in 2024. It was the strongest calendar year of growth since 2022. Still, the loss of growth momentum in the second half
Pinewood shares toppled after Apax walks away from takeover talks
On the London stock market, there’s a cautious start to the new trading week… although shares in automotive technology firm Pinewood.AI have tumbled by almost a third.
Pinewoodwhich provides software management systems to car dealers, fell 30% in early trading after investment group Apax Partners walked away from takeover talks, due to. “prevailing challenging market conditions”.
Pinewood told the City this morning that it is well-positioned to continue executing its strategy, saying:
The Board of Pinewood.AI remains very confident in the positive long-term prospects for the Group. The Company occupies a leading position as a mission-critical, full-service, embedded technology provider to automotive retailers and OEMs, benefitting from high recurring revenues and long-standing OEM partnerships.
This platform positions Pinewood.AI to remain at the forefront of technology innovation and provide best in class technology and secure solutions across its existing and future customers.
Switzerland returns to growth
Newsflash: Switzerland has also escaped recession, despite the economic damage caused by US tariffs.
Swiss GDP expanded by 0.2% in the fourth quarter of 2025, a new estimate shows. That follows a 0.5% contraction in the third quarter of 2025, when the US trade war hurt its exporters.
Switzerland’s State Secretariat for Economic Affairs says that “growth in the services sector was muted, while the industrial sector stagnated,” in Q4, adding:
According to provisional results, the Swiss economy grew by 1.4% in 2025 overall, following 1.2% the previous year.
This is well below Switzerland’s average economic growth (1.8% since 1981). The challenging international environment slowed the export‑oriented industry.
By contrast, the services sector grew at an above‑average rate by historical standards
President Trump hit Switzerland with 39% tariffs under his trade war, before agreeing to lower them to 15% in November.
Japan has slotted in at the bottom of the G7 growth table, along with the UK:
With Canada and the US yet to report their GDP data for October-December, here’s what we know so far:
Competition among UK house sellers at 11-year high
Competition among UK house sellers is running at an eleven-year high, giving buyers more opportunities and keeping prices pegged this month.
Property portal Rightmove is reporting this morning that the average asking price for a newly listed homes dipped by just £12 this month, to £368,019.
And with more houses on the marker – after a record number of early-bird new sellers coming to market sinceBoxing Day and in January – potential buyers have plenty of choice.
Rightmove says the high number of homes for sale is continuing to benefit buyers, giving them more choice and more power to negotiate.
And with last November’s budget behind us, net confidence among buyers and sellers in January has risen back to its highest level since September 2025, Rightmove reports.
Should the Bank of England cut interest rates at its next meeting, in March, that could give borrowers another lift, as the peak spring selling season approaches.
According to Rightmovethe average asking price is the same as a year ago, after that £12 shuffle lower.
That’s despite a record asking price increase for the time of year in January, which means prices are up by 2.8% since December
As the market is “still very price-sensitive,” sellers need to pitch their properties realistically, says Colleen Babcockproperty expert at Rightmove:
“Virtually flat prices in February really needs to be viewed alongside what happened in January.
After the prolonged uncertainty in the run up to the late November Budget, plus the usual Christmas slowdown, we saw activity pick up again from Boxing Day. Many sellers, some of whom had been holding back because of the Budget, came to market in early 2026 with renewed confidence, which helped to drive that bumper January price rise.
But the market fundamentals haven’t changed. There are still lots of homes for sale, and buying activity isn’t as strong as this time last year, when many buyers were rushing to move before the stamp duty increase in England. So in February, sellers have taken a more cautious approach by holding onto January’s gains rather than pushing prices higher, at a time when competition is high and the market is still very price-sensitive.”
After a bullish January, sellers overall think better of asking for more as increased competition stifles growths. Annually prices remained flat but many sellers tiptoed higher in February hoping end of year budget restraints being now removed would release pent up demand.… pic.twitter.com/PQbemcjmJN
— Emma Fildes (@emmafildes) February 16, 2026
Japan’s stock market dips
Shares fell in Tokyo as investors digest today’s weaker-than-expected growth report.
The Nikkei 225 index dipped by 0.24%, while the broader Topix shed 0.8%.
Masahiro Ichikawachief market strategist at Sumitomo Mitsui DS Asset Management, said:
“I figured the GDP figures would be treated as past figures, but seeing the Nikkei average struggling to gain, there may be some slight impact.”
Introduction: Japan avoids recession with weak return to growth
Good morning, and welcome to our rolling coverage of business, the financial markets and the world economy.
Japan has escaped falling into recession, just, with a weak return to growth that highlights the need for punchy measures from its new government to spur the economy on.
Japanese GDP expanded by just 0.1% in October-December, fresh data from Japan’s Cabinet Office shows, missing forecasts of 0.4% growth.
That follows a contraction of 0.7% in July-September, and means Japan has avoided a technical recession – two negative quarters of growth in a row.
Private consumption drove the expansion, while exports and public spending were weak.
Shinichiro Kobayashichief economist at Mitsubishi UFJ Research and Consultingexplained:
“Personal consumption showed resilience, but whether this resilience can be sustained will depend on whether price relief measures will make an impact and whether real wages will turn positive.”
Japan’s economy has been hurt by Donald Trump’s trade war, which increased tariffs on Japanese goods entering the US.
The diplomatic row between Beijing and Tokyo over the security of Taiwan also weighed on the economy, with Chinese tourism to Japan almost halving.
The data comes just a week after prime minister Healthy Takaichi won a landslide election victory, having promised “responsible and proactive fiscal policies”.
Takaichi was due to meet with Bank of Japan governor Kazuo Uedain their first bilateral meeting since the election.
Last November, Takaichi unveiled a massive ¥21.3tn (£100bn) stimulus package in an effort to spur economic growth and protect households from the rising cost of living. Further measures may be needed….
