50% rates have little effect on the oil market, but may change trade between Brazil and the USA

According to experts heard by the G1, if the fare applied by Donald Trump remains in force until August 1, Brazil may have to look for new partners to drain its production and acquire essential inputs for the sector. Government studies retaliation after Trump announces 50% tariff to Brazil if in effect from August 1, 50% rates announced by the United States about Brazilian products can lead the oil and gas sector to look for new partners to drain its production, experts heard by G1. In addition, the eventual application of the reciprocity law can also change the commercial dynamics between countries. But analysts maintain some hope that the US maintains exemption from rates for Brazilian mineral fuels, which would give business stability. Donald Trump’s fare to Brazil is the highest among the new measures adopted so far. To avoid price climbing, Brazilian and American governments have until the end of the month to reach an agreement. Understand below the effects of tariffs on the oil and gas market, and what they say industry representatives. Sector that most exports to the US experts and G1 oil and gas representatives show concern about the weight of this segment in Brazilian exports. A survey of XP Investimentos, based on data from the Ministry of Industry (MDIC), showed that oil, oil products and related materials were the main products exported by Brazil to the US, corresponding to 18.8% of the total in 2024. With gross oils of oil or bituminous minerals, Brazil sold about $ 2.4 billion to the first semester, the largest volume among exports. 🔎 Betuminous minerals are petroleum -derived materials that contain bitumen – a dark, dark and flammable chemical – widely used in construction, especially in paving and waterproofing. See the most exported products in Brazil to the US between January and June: gross oil or bituminous minerals-US $ 2.37 billion semi-monufated iron or steel (low carbon) products-US $ 1.49 billion non-to-roasted, $ 1.16 billion boned and frozen beef meats-US $ 737.8 million folded iron (raw iron not connected) – US $ 683.6 million cellulose (non -conic wood chemical paste) – US $ 668.6 million fuel oils and oil preparations – US $ 610.2 million infographic – Understand 50% rate announced by Trump to Brazil and economic relationship with the US. Art/G1 The impacts on Brazil despite the high volume of exports for the US, experts assess that the impact of tariffs in the medium and long term tends to be limited in Brazil – mainly because the country has the capacity to redirect trade to other international partners. “Although exports to the US currently represent about 13% of the total Brazilian exports of gross oil, we believe the effects can be easily mitigated by the redistribution of export flows, as oil is a liquid and global market,” said Regis Cardoso, responsible for XP oil and natural gas, in a report. This scenario also tends to reduce impacts on the end consumer. “I don’t think it comes to the consumer because if this is all this way, Brazil is likely to look for another market,” says former director general of the National Oil Agency, Natural Gas and Biofuels (ANP) and professor at PUC-Rio, David Zylbersztajn. “There may be some adaptation period, because it is not something that is done overnight. But in the medium term you will adapt and adjust prices.” In addition, experts point out that the US is still expected to maintain exemption from tariffs for Brazilian mineral fuels – as Trump’s letter has not specified whether or not the oil and gas sector will be subject to collection. If the exemption is confirmed, the impacts on the sector in Brazil should be even milder. On the other hand, there is a warning that the Brazilian government can trigger the law of economic reciprocity, which would bring new developments. 🔎 The economic reciprocity law establishes response measures in cases of commercial retaliation. With the new standard, the country gains legal support to react to actions considered unfair – such as the tariff announced by Trump. According to Sergio Araujo, president of the Brazilian Association of Fuel Importers (Abicom), a possible retaliation of the Brazilian government can directly affect US product importers. In the fuel sector, Araujo points out that the biggest concern is with diesel, as Brazil still depends on imports to supply between 25% and 30% of internal demand. “Much of the diesel consumed imported comes from Russia, but about 20% is still acquired from the US,” says Araujo, noting that Petrobras is one of the main responsible for bringing this American fuel to the country. “With the reciprocity law, there is a good chance that Petrobras has to look for alternatives or even stop acting directly on importing the product, letting independent importers guarantee the internal supply,” adds the president of Abicom. Can Brazil retaliate the US with tariffs? Is there legal support? And economic strength? Understand Petrobras, Cosan and Unipar are the most impacted by the XP survey also indicated that large oil and gas companies get part of its US export revenue, and can be impacted by Trump’s announced rates. Among the companies mentioned in the report are Cosan, with 6% of its revenue from exports to the US. Following are Petrobras (4%), Unipar (4%) and Braskem (less than 1%). Sought, Cosan declined to comment, while Unipar reported that it will position itself through industry representatives. Braskem said it is “following the evolution of the theme and evaluating the potential impacts”. Petrobras, in turn, reported that it is evaluating the impacts of newly informed oil tariffs and their derivatives. The company stressed that it follows attentive to market movements and “maintains its strategy of always seeking the best alternative for the company in any scenario.” “Petrobras’ commercial positioning and global performance allows us to permanently monitor international market movements and observe the most economical options,” the company added in an official note. What to wait ahead? According to experts consulted by the G1, although impacts are expected to be limited in the medium and long term, the announcement of tariffs is still recent and requires a more detailed analysis – which will depend on negotiations between Brazil and the US until the rates scheduled for the rates, scheduled for August 1. According to experts, although impacts are expected to be limited in the medium and long term, the announcement of tariffs still requires further analysis, which will depend on negotiations between Brazil and US until August 1. “It’s hard to know the effects because it still has a great volatility in this negotiation process that can vary greatly over time. Everything can change,” explains Zylbersztajn of PUC-Rio. In a statement, the Brazilian Institute of Petroleum and Gas (IBP) stated that the sector follows with concern the announcement of tariffs. IBP also highlighted the importance of maintaining dialogue between the two countries “to find a diplomatic exit for the issue and preserve institutional stability and commercial flow between the two largest economies on the continent.” “The measure brings uncertainties to the oil and gas sector […]. Therefore, we cautiously evaluated the real impacts on investments and competitiveness of our industry, which has more than 40,000 companies operating directly in Brazil, ”said the institute in a statement. Asked about the possible effects of Trump announced in negotiations between Brazil and the US – and its reflexes on Brazilian exports and domestic markets – MDIC had not spoken to the last update of this report. Trump Jim Watson / AFP

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