Quaest: Lula would win the second round, but Flávio Bolsonaro reduces the gap; see results

by Marcelo Moreira

President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva (PT) continues to lead the presidential race, according to the new Genial/Quaest survey released this Wednesday (11) in all first and second round scenarios.

Senator Flávio Bolsonaro has established himself as Lula’s main opponent and occupies second place in all the scenarios in which he is tested. The disadvantage, however, decreased: in August 2025, it was 16 points, fell to 10 in December and reached five in this new survey.

The Genial/Quaest survey interviewed 2,004 voters between the 5th and 9th of February. The margin of error is plus or minus 2 percentage points, the confidence level is 95%.

Check out the search results for a possible second round:

Lula (PT): 43% x 38%: Flávio Bolsonaro (PL)
Lula (PT): 43% x 35%: Ratinho Júnior (PSD)
Lula (PT): 42% x 32%: Ronaldo Caiado (PSD)
Lula (PT): 43% x 32%: Romeu Zema (New)
Lula (PT): 42% x 25%: Renan Santos (Mission)

Unlike the last edition, this one no longer considers the governor of São Paulo, Tarcísio de Freitas, in any of the round scenarios.

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