A survey by the Brazilian Coffee Industry Association shows that it was the most expensive item in the basic food basket in 2025.
One of the main points was the 50% tariff imposed by the United States on Brazilian coffee. The measure raised the price of grain on the New York Stock Exchange, a global market reference.
Another factor was the reduction in global stocks. Supply fell after four consecutive years of crop failure in the main producing countries, due to weather problems.
In Brazil, the climate also affected production, mainly of Arabica coffee, the most consumed variety in the country. With higher costs, part of the increase was passed on to the consumer.
According to the sector, if all the adjustment accumulated since 2021 were transferred, the price of coffee could rise by around 70% more.
What will coffee look like in 2026?
Even without official harvest balances, the president of Abic assesses that Brazil should have a good harvest in 2026.
This is because La Niña, a climate event in force last year, caused fewer weather extremes in producing areas.
However, Cardoso states that at least two good harvests would be needed, that is, a good harvest for two consecutive years, to generate a real drop in coffee prices.
