Key events
I say Keys suddenly decided she could win, but actually, there was nothing sudden about it. Rather, it was the culmination of years of defeats, no-shows and collapses, prompting soul-searching, coach-changes and the terror of unfulfilled potential. The change was sudden, but the process was painstaking.
Preamble
G’day and welcome to the Australian Open 2026 – day 12!
It’s not often you wake up on a dingy and cold winter’s morning mentally rubbing your hands together but, indubitably, this is one such occasion.
In our first match, Elina Svitolina is the latest to try and solve the hard-court conundrum of Aryna Sabalenka. The champion here in 2023 and 2024, having also won the last two US Opens, she has – so far – been the best player in either draw, marching into the last four without losing a set.
Last year, Sabalenka was beaten in the final by Madison Keys – and by destiny, facing an opponent who, after years of losing when it really counted, suddenly decided she could win. But Keys is one of few able to match the world no 1 for clean-hitting power; if Svitolina is to prevail, that will need turning against her though clever use of angles and spins. It’ll take the performance of a lifetime to turn possibility into reality, but her form suggests it’s in her, if she can only find it.
Our second semi-final features a not-dissimilar contest, Jess Pegula looking to mitigate her lacking power and athleticism with desire, consistency and renewed belief that is almost religious. Still improving at 31, like Keys last year she has a sense that, for the first time, her game is in good enough shape to beat the best players on the biggest occasions.
Elena Rybakina, though, is also in terrific nick, having won the year-end WTA finals and begun this season in similar vein. Her joyously uncomplicated thwacking is a delight to behold, a product of long levers and glorious timing, but Pegula might just’ve conjured a way to respond, her anticipation and speed allowing her to block back balls into demanding areas, thinking her way around the court just as Svitolina has to.
Or, in other words, this is going to be great. Let’s go!
