The fall of dictator Nicolás Maduro, captured by United States forces on the 3rd, also meant a major blow to the financing, protection and shelter structure that was being offered by the Venezuelan regime to Colombian guerrillas and criminal factions operating in Latin America.
According to an analysis published by the organization InSight Crime, Maduro’s removal from power has already altered the balance that supported the presence of armed criminal groups in Venezuela. Among them are the National Liberation Army (ELN) and other dissident guerrillas from the extinct Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia (FARC), which had consolidated their operations in the country based on informal agreements with local Chavista authorities.
According to InSight Crime, these groups, in addition to other criminal factions, depended on Venezuelan territory to maintain drug trafficking routes, explore illegal mining and operate with less risk of state repression. With the political change in Caracas and direct pressure from Washington for results in the fight against organized crime, these guarantees began to disappear.
Intelligence reports cited by InSight Crime indicate that, after Maduro’s capture, commanders and fighters from the ELN and FARC dissidents began movements to withdraw or reduce exposure in Venezuelan territory, especially in border states. The retreat is being interpreted as preventive given the risk of coordinated actions involving Venezuela, Colombia and the United States.
Colombia’s Defense Minister, Pedro Sánchez, stated on the 6th that the ELN feels more “insecure” in Venezuelan territory after the actions of the United States and is now seeking to consolidate its presence in other areas. Other criminal structures that operated relatively freely in Venezuela, such as the Segunda Marquetalia guerrilla and the Tren de Aragua criminal faction, are also reducing their activities on Venezuelan soil, given the loss of state protection and the greater predictability of repression.
Maduro’s capture also changed the risk calculation for cartels and transnational factions operating in Latin America. In an analysis on Fox News, retired United States Navy Vice Admiral Robert Harward stated that the operation carried out on the 3rd sends a direct message not only to drug traffickers, but also to local governments that offer shelter and protection to criminal networks.
“If they come to mess with our backyard, we will deal with it,” said Harward, highlighting Washington’s willingness to act directly against drug trafficking and its supporters in the Western Hemisphere.
