Since taking office for his second term on January 20 last year, Donald Trump has generated profound changes at a national and international level, testing the limits of his power in the presidency, while at the same time showing the world that the USA will act based on diplomacy of force.
In just one year, President Trump signed hundreds of presidential decrees with two prominent fronts: his hard-line policy against illegal immigration and improving economic indicators. One of the tactics used during this period to boost the economy was the imposition of global tariffs, something that his government has not yet reaped the benefits of.
The Republican leader was also involved in other notable episodes on the international scene, raising tensions with some countries, such as Iran, which was attacked by American forces in June last year, while adopting a pacifying tone in other cases, as occurred in the mediation of the war between Israel and Hamas.
If during his first term Trump presented himself as a successful businessman and former American television star, in this second term he is being remembered for his dogged determination to make his mark in the most powerful office in the world, defying the status quo.
A recent episode that shows how Trump is focused on reaffirming this American power occurred with the capture of dictator Nicolás Maduro inside Venezuela on the 3rd. His government justified that the night operation in the first days of the year was a “judicial measure”, since the Chavista leader was the target of American justice.
Trump’s tariff policy, considered the cornerstone of his economic vision, also shook the world in this first part of his second term. These fees are no longer merely punitive, functioning instead as a coercive tool to attract investment and boost the country’s economy, which is focused, above all, on the race for leadership against China, especially in the areas of technology and strategic raw materials.
One of the countries most affected by the measure was Brazil, which suffered from the imposition of 50% charges on its imports, a percentage that decreased after conversations between the American president and his Brazilian counterpart, Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva (PT).
Now, Trump has renewed his interest in Greenland and has provoked a mobilization of European countries in protest at his initiative to annex the Arctic island. This weekend, he announced new tariffs on all countries that oppose the acquisition of Danish territory.
Results achieved by the Trump administration in the economy are better than expected
To Adriana Melo, finance and taxation specialistthe policies already implemented in this second term make it clear that Trump exchanges predictability for levers. “There is a lot of talk about tariffs, exceptions, decrees, threats and various negotiations, all used as bargaining tactics.”
According to the analyst, this strategy has worked, but it also has costs. “A silent cost, one that takes a toll along the way. The world is beginning to treat the US as a recurring political risk, rather than the safe haven of rules it used to be.”
In the economy, the sector most targeted by the president, the indices showed some progress at the beginning of his administration, but still require improvement to revive voter support and boost the country.
“Inflation recorded until December 2025 was 2.7%. Food and health inflation is a little higher, around 3.1% to 3.2%. This is below the historical CPI average, which is 3.29%, but still above the ideal, which is around 2%”, recalls Melo.
Unemployment remains in line, at the best historical average, at 4.4%, but the pace of job creation has slowed down. “In December, job creation was only 50 thousand new positions, which is worrying, especially in a period in which greater job creation is expected.”
What to expect from the midterm elections
For economist Igor Lucena, PhD in International Relations, there is a great possibility that the Republicans will lose their majority in Congress during the mid-term elections, which take place in the second half of the year.
“[…] What is expected in this midterm is a real possibility that they will lose control of the Chamber and the Senate. This is because what defines the elections, and what made Trump win, was the cost of living. And the cost of living has increased a lot in the USA. Of course, there was a decrease in the price of oil. He is now trying to reduce the price of medicines, but the grocerythat is, food, continues to rise”, he highlighted.
The analyst explains that this movement occurs because, at the same time that Trump establishes a policy trying to reduce costs, understanding that this was decisive for his election and that it could also harm the midterm elections, when we look at it clearly, the tariff policy itself has a direct effect on increasing production costs, which end up being passed on to the consumer”.
According to Lucena, Trump adopted a neo-mercantilist vision for the USA which, in his words, may even generate results in the financial market and public accounts, “but it is certainly not generating positive results internally”.
Adriana Melo remembers that, historically, the midterms scenario is always unfavorable for the incumbent president and his party. “On average, the president’s party loses 26 seats in the Chamber. As the majority today is 218, this indicates a high risk of blocking the budget and even a new shutdown (stoppage). We must face many impasses, because the scenario is not usually favorable to the party in power, and the tendency is for the majority to be lost”.
According to her, it is for this reason that Trump has avoided passing several of his measures through Congress, precisely to circumvent this scenario, using Executive instruments to make things happen. “Midterms change the political climate, but not necessarily the way Trump conducts business, as he avoids this institutional path. He often tries to act in a more political way, as he himself says: ‘more politics, less politics’.”
For Lucena, what we currently see in the USA is a divided country. “A country in which even Trump’s base remains strong, but his approval continues to fall. This makes this government policy very difficult to sustain in the long term”, he assesses.
