The World Bank reduced the projection for the growth of Brazil’s Gross Domestic Product in 2025, from 2.4% to 2.3%, in the most recent edition of its global outlook report. For 2026, the review was more significant. The forecast fell from 2.2% to 2%, while the estimate for 2027 remained at 2.3%. The numbers are part of the biannual Global Economic Perspectives report, released this Tuesday (13).
The cut carries a diagnosis of an economy pressured by the weight of high real interest rates, more hostile international trade and a global environment marked by uncertainty. In historical terms, this is a reasonable pace for a country that has been experiencing structural bottlenecks for decades. However, given the fiscal, social and projected investment needs, it seems insufficient to decisively change the trajectory of public debt or sustain a more robust expansion of private investment. The institution also mentions the growth in government debt as a worrying factor for fiscal responsibility.
According to the report, the expansion of world production tends to lose a little steam this year, reaching 2.6%, below the 2.7% observed in 2025. Even so, the data indicates a positive revision of 0.2 percentage points compared to the most recent projections, published in June.
Although it recognizes that global GDP has shown greater resilience than expected, the World Bank warned that economic expansion remains restricted to the most developed economies and is still not enough to reduce extreme poverty.
