‘Donroe’ doctrine, aggressive campaign, closed doors to immigrants: what will the Trump administration be like in 2026?

Barring a few surprises, the President of the United States, Donald Trump, followed the agenda in 2025 that he had promised during his election campaign. ✅ Click here to follow the g1 international news channel on WhatsApp His hunt for immigrants within the USA, the tariffs, the intervention to combat crime in Democratic cities and the attempt to resolve international conflicts marked the first year of Trump’s second term. All within a script more or less already drawn up by Trump before being re-elected to the White House – in his campaign, he promised, for example, to expel all illegal immigrants from the USA and end the war in Ukraine within 24 hours. The same cannot be said, however, about his second year of his second term: the agenda that the North American president will follow in 2026 is surrounded by unpredictability, according to experts interviewed by g1, but there are some clues already indicated by the Trump administration. The delay in resolving international conflicts, the wear and tear due to immigrant arrests around the US and the growing internal division within his party should also force the president to review his priorities, according to the analyses. The military operation that the US has been carrying out near the coast of Venezuela and a foreign policy document released in December signal that, in 2026, Trump’s foreign policy should have Latin America as one of its main focuses. Analysts estimate that the president tends to reinforce his presence and influence in the region in a reinterpretation of the Monroe Doctrine — nicknamed the “Donroe Doctrine” (read more below). In 2026, the assessment is that Trump will: Double down on anti-immigration policies, now closing the doors to new arrivals; Will try to resolve international conflicts with volatile agreements; It will apply the so-called “Donroe Doctrine”, with which it will expand operations in Latin America and seek to lead protectionism in the West to face China and Russia; He will try to regroup the Republican Party, now fragmented, and will campaign aggressively for the midterm elections; There will be a battle between states and Artificial Intelligence giants to regulate the use of AI in the USA; He will maintain the unpredictability, a hallmark of his government style. Double bet on the fight against immigrants Video shows immigrant attacked by agent in the USA Before assuming his second term at the head of the White House, in January this year, Donald Trump promised to expel all immigrants residing in the United States in an irregular situation. As predicted by analysts, this did not occur, but Washington’s anti-immigration campaign was quite aggressive. In a matter of weeks, Trump put thousands of agents from the United States Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) on the streets to hunt down and detain, often without an arrest warrant, illegal foreigners, even if they were in the process of regularization. The model, repeated throughout the year and across the US, gained critics and growing protests and the year 2025 ended in wear and tear — mayors of several cities and even residents have been trying to ban ICE’s actions, and Republicans themselves have begun to criticize the policy. ➡️ Still, in 2026 Trump should double the bet: the prospects for his second year in government indicate a tightening of anti-immigration policies. The difference now is that he must focus on restrictions on the entry of foreigners and the granting of visas. “It will basically disable the United States’ legal immigration system,” predicts Shev Dalal-Dheini, director of government relations at the American Immigrant Lawyers Association. At the end of this year, Washington already began implementing visa restriction policies. In early December, the Trump administration suspended visa applications for citizens of 19 countries, including Afghanistan, Iran, Cuba and Venezuela. The United States military and foreign policy strategy that his administration released in early December envisions the “end of the era of mass migration” and speaks of the need to “protect borders against uncontrolled migration, terrorism, drugs, espionage and human trafficking.” The adjustment to the immigration police, for Dheini, aims to contain the flight of his Trumpist electorate, by keeping the anti-immigration agenda active and avoiding highlighting the expulsion of immigrants who may have some close relationship with voters. This was the case, for example, in Miami, where voters, mostly Republicans, elected a Democratic mayor (read more below) due to a possible erosion of immigration arrests by ICE. A survey by the Associated Press Center for Public Affairs Research and the Norc Institute at the University of Chicago, carried out in the last half of this year, showed that approval of Trump’s policy on immigrants fell from 49% to 38%, compared to the first half. SANDRA COHEN: Democrat’s victory in Miami reflects the Latin community’s irritation with Trump’s hard-line immigration policy Protester raises sign against ICE agents, the body responsible for controlling immigration in the USA Daniel Cole/Reuters Ceasefire agreements instead of a definitive end to conflicts Throughout 2025, in a “self-campaign” to win the Nobel Peace Prize, Donald Trump repeated several times the speech that he managed to end eight wars and conflicts around the world, including that in Israel and Hamas, that of Pakistan and India and that of Armenia and Azerbaijan. Practically all, however, were truce or ceasefire agreements, and some lasted only days, such as the agreement between Thailand and Cambodia over a territorial dispute. Even so, the North American president should continue to focus, in 2026, on promoting ceasefire agreements instead of lasting treaties, according to analysts. The exception must be Gaza and Ukraine: For the Gaza Strip, Trump himself announced that he plans to form a Peace Council, with international leaders, in 2026. The idea is that the council will form a transitional government until the Palestinian Authority regains control of the territory. In Ukraine, the American has avoided talking about a ceasefire since his last meeting with Russian President Vladimir Putin. Putin defends an agreement that puts a definitive end to the conflict. However, the plan drawn up by Trump leaves territorial issues, the main point of disagreement between Moscow and Kiev, open. The ‘Donroe Doctrine’ and protectionism towards the West Focus on Latin America and China: understand Donald Trump’s new national security strategy Also in the document that unravels US military strategy and foreign policy, released in December by the Pentagon, Washington mentions by name the intention to rescue the Monroe Doctrine, the policy that the US established in 1823 to claim Washington’s sovereignty over the West and, mainly, the American continent. In practice, Latin America has become the main backyard of this doctrine, and the military operation that the US Armed Forces have been carrying out near the coast of Venezuela has led analysts to start talking about a “Donroe Doctrine”, a play on words with the original name and that of Donald Trump). This is a kind of adjustment, along the lines of the Trump administration, of the Monroe Doctrine, which should be one of the main highlights of its foreign policy in 2026. The announcement, in December, that Washington signed a cooperation agreement with Paraguay that provides for US military operations in the country also goes in the same direction as this new strategy. The idea is to use the doctrine not only to expand operations and influence in Latin America, but, mainly, to confront two other powers that he sees as a threat: China and Russia, in the opinion of the professor of International Relations at ESPM and coordinator of the School’s Center for American Studies and Business (Nenam), Roberto Uebel. “Latin America is a priority, but Trump is looking at the West as a whole, especially Europe,” says Uebel. “What is clear is that Trump understands that there are three great powers: the United States, China and Russia. It is a return to economic nationalism and a multipolar worldview centered on this three-power worldview.” “He will try to bring the entire West under the umbrella of the United States,” predicts the professor. ‘Aggressive’ campaign in the mid-term elections Residents of Nevada vote in the mid-term elections in Las Vegas, United States, on November 8, 2022. REUTERS/David Swanson In November 2026, the US will renew a large part of the Legislature, in what the country calls mid-term elections, as they occur in the middle of the term of a president, elected two years earlier. All seats in the Chamber of Deputies and one third of the Senate will be renewed. The election, in addition to being able to redefine the majorities in both Houses, is also seen as a thermometer of the current government — historically, the opposition party usually wins mid-term elections. Although analysts are not yet taking the risk of predicting the results of the election, there is already a consensus on the rebalancing of powers in Washington – which means the loss of power for the Republican Party. This is because Trump’s party, which began the year united around the current president, is currently fragmented and has suffered several defeats in recent local elections, including in heavily Republican strongholds, such as Miami. “If you are a Republican and you are not worried (about the midterm elections), then you are living in a cave,” said Senator Jim Justice, Republican of West Virginia In December, Trump himself acknowledged that his party could be defeated, but also said that he will do whatever it takes to make that happen, according to his own chief of staff, Susie Wiles. Wiles has already stated that Trump will run an aggressive campaign in 2026 and that the party will effectively “put him on the ballot.” Regulation of AI Another battle, and a big one, also awaits the Trump administration in 2026: the regulation of Artificial Intelligence. The tendency is for the North American president to intervene little in the matter. This is because technology giants, led by Nvidia, have been pressuring Donald Trump to do this, arguing that the burden of too much regulation makes innovation difficult. The challenge, however, is that these regulations are already being made in the USA, albeit at local levels. Throughout the year, 38 US states adopted their own legislation regulating the use of technology. Local laws range from prohibiting stalking using AI robots to banning AI systems that can manipulate people’s behavior. In December, Trump, mindful of pressure from AI giants, signed an executive order to change these state artificial intelligence laws and speaks of a “minimally burdensome” national framework for AI. Its intention, in 2026, is to unify legislation for AI to intervene as little as possible in the technology, as established by its executive order. “We’re going to have a big fight over AI regulation — like rules on model safety, children’s access to chatbots, building data centers — and Trump is fully committed to a hands-off approach,” said US political journalist Sasha Issenberg, author of “The Victory Lab: The Secret Science of Winning Campaigns.” Unpredictability Although there are pre-defined agendas, Trump must maintain his unpredictability, one of the great hallmarks of his politics, according to the chief analyst at US risk consultancy Washington Southern Pulse, Sam Logan. “There is no way to predict what Trump will do in 2026 other than to praise himself, his family and his friends, and pursue the so-called Trump Corollary to the Monroe Doctrine. Like (former US President Richard) Nixon, his unpredictability is possibly his most powerful tool in foreign policy,” Logan told g1.

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