President Lula leads all simulated scenarios for the 2026 presidential election, according to a survey released this Friday (26) by Paraná Pesquisas. The research also indicates balanced disputes in possible second-round clashes, mainly against names linked to the Bolsonaro family.
The institute interviewed 2,038 voters between December 18th and 22nd. The margin of error is 2.2 percentage points, plus or minus, and the confidence level is 95%.
The study presents different first-round scenarios, as well as second-round simulations between the main names on the national political scene.
First round:
Lula leads with Jair Bolsonaro
In the first scenario, Lula appears with 36.9% of voting intentions. Jair Bolsonaro comes close behind, with 31.3%.
Next come Ciro Gomes, with 6.9%, and Ratinho Junior, with 6.5%. Ronaldo Caiado has 4.0%. Romeu Zema adds 1.6%, while Tereza Cristina records 1.4%. Renan Santos appears with 0.6%.
Among those interviewed, 4.8% said they did not know or preferred not to answer. 6.0% said they voted blank, null or for no candidate.
Lula maintains advantage over Flávio Bolsonaro
In the scenario in which Flávio Bolsonaro runs for President, Lula registers 37.6% of voting intentions. The senator appears with 27.8%.
Ratinho Junior adds 9.0%, while Ciro Gomes scores 7.9%. Romeu Zema has 3.1%. Tereza Cristina appears with 1.9% and Renan Santos, with 0.8%.
Furthermore, 5.3% of those interviewed did not know or did not give an opinion. 6.7% said they would vote blank, null or for none of the names presented.
Lula leads the race against Tarcísio de Freitas
In the simulation with Tarcísio de Freitas, Lula appears with 37.8% of voting intentions. The governor of São Paulo records 26.2%.
Ciro Gomes adds 8.7%. Ronaldo Caiado appears with 5.0%. Romeu Zema has 3.9%. Tereza Cristina records 2.5%, while Renan Santos scores 0.8%.
In this scenario, 6.1% of voters did not know or did not respond. 8.9% said they voted blank, null or for no candidate.
Lula appears ahead of Michelle Bolsonaro
When Michelle Bolsonaro enters the race, Lula registers 37.2% of voting intentions. The former first lady appears with 24.4%.
Ciro Gomes totals 8.3%, followed closely by Ratinho Junior, with 8.2%. Ronaldo Caiado records 4.9%. Romeu Zema has 3.2%. Tereza Cristina appears with 2.0% and Renan Santos, with 0.9%.
Among those interviewed, 5.1% did not know or did not respond. 5.8% said they voted blank, null or for no candidate.
Second round:
Lula and Jair Bolsonaro appear technically tied
In a possible second round between Lula and Jair Bolsonaro, the dispute appears balanced. Lula has 43.6% of voting intentions, while Bolsonaro has 43.4%.
Furthermore, 5.2% of respondents did not know or did not respond. Another 7.8% voted blank, null or for neither of the two candidates.
Lula leads against Flávio Bolsonaro
In the simulation between Lula and Flávio Bolsonaro, the president appears with 44.1%. The senator registers 41.0%.
Undecided voters total 5.7%, while 9.2% voted blank, null or for no candidate.
Lula has an advantage against Tarcísio de Freitas
In a possible direct confrontation against Tarcísio de Freitas, Lula has 44.0% of voting intentions. The governor appears with 42.5%.
Among those interviewed, 4.7% did not know or did not respond. 8.8% said they voted blank, null or for no candidate.
Lula beats Michelle Bolsonaro
In the dispute between Lula and Michelle Bolsonaro, the president appears with 44.8% of voting intentions. The former first lady accounts for 41.4%.
Undecided people represent 4.8% of the total. Another 9.0% voted blank, null or in neither of the two names.
Laura Basílio under supervision.
