Even before the official announcement of the Oscar 2026 nominees, a recent survey by the specialized website Gold Derby points to Wagner Moura as one of the strongest names in the race for the Best Actor award.
The official announcement of the nominees will be on January 22, 2026.
According to the projection, the Brazilian actor appears with a 91.34% chance of winning, occupying third place among the 15 best positioned competitors in the category. The ranking brings together both artists already considered pre-nominated and others who have been closely monitored throughout the awards season.
At the top of the list is Leonardo DiCaprio, with a 95.08% probability, followed by Timothée Chalamet, who adds 93.62%. Wagner Moura comes close behind, surpassing big names like Michael B. Jordan and Ethan Hawke.
The predictions released by Gold Derby are calculated based on a combination of bets made by experts from international vehicles, editors of the site itself and users who have a high history of correct guesses in previous editions of the Oscars.
In addition to individual prominence, the Brazilian presence is also strengthened in other categories. The film The Secret Agent appears among the pre-nominees for Best International Film and Best Casting, according to the list released by the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences on the 16th.
