Viktor Orbán risks being ousted from power in Hungary by a former ally

Viktor Orbán and Péter Magyar compete in the elections in Hungary REUTERS Praised by Presidents Donald Trump and Vladimir Putin as a model of the populist far right in Europe, the Prime Minister of Hungary runs, for the first time in 16 years, the real risk of being removed from office after four successful elections. His challenger this Sunday (12) is a former ally of the Fidesz party, which dominates power in the country: Péter Magyar, 45, had Orbán as an idol and was part of his inner circle until breaking with him two years ago and renewing the center-right Tisza party, which leads the independent polls, with an average advantage of 13 points. The fact that he was close to the prime minister, and now accuses the government system of being corrupt, gave Magyar legitimacy among the Hungarians and accelerated his political rise. Knowing the ins and outs of Fidesz, the opponent preaches change and his criticisms of Orbán sound like music in the ears of voters tired of systemic corruption, which drags the country to last place in the EU in the ranking of the NGO Transparency International. In Hungary forged by Orbán, the Constitution, the Judiciary, the media and institutions in general are controlled by the State. The country is described as an electoral autocracy by the Swedish institute V-Dem, which acts as a database to measure democracy. Viktor Orban may leave power in Hungary after 16 years Magyar knew how to exploit Hungarians’ dissatisfaction with the stagnant economy, high cost of living, frozen salaries and complaints about the illicit enrichment of Fidesz employees, and remain distant from sensitive topics, such as the persecution of the LGBTQIA+ community. The opponent’s conservative profile aligns with his strict stance on immigration, promising, for example, to keep the barrier on the country’s southern border erected. He is committed, however, to restoring the rule of law to guarantee the independence of the courts, freedom of the press and universities. Far from being pro-EU, it intends to rebuild broken ties with the bloc, starting with the release of bloc funds destined for the country — around 17 billion euros —, which were blocked due to Hungary’s violations of community standards. It won’t be easy. The considerable advantage in the polls does not guarantee victory nor the changes promised by Magyar, who would need an absolute majority in Parliament to reformulate the Constitution. Changes to the electoral system were engineered to benefit Fidesz, report researchers Liana Fix and Benjamin Harris, from the Council on Foreign Relations think tank. “Through a combination of manipulating electoral districts and changing the rules for entry into Parliament, Orbán has ensured that his electoral strongholds are over-represented and that opposition parties face a more difficult battle for power”, they ponder in an article. With television debates abolished in Hungary, Magyar was left to travel the country holding an average of six rallies a day and with the conviction that he will dismantle the autocratic system of the Orbán administration, under the slogan “Tisza is overflowing”. “I believe that Tisza will have a landslide electoral victory, because not even Fidesz voters want our country to be a puppet state of Russia, a colony, an assembly factory, instead of belonging to Europe”, assured Magyar in an interview with the Associated Press. As the European Union’s longest-serving head of government, Orbán is also the leader most aligned with Putin and insistently seeks to halt the bloc’s financial support for Ukraine. The close relationship between the two leaders inflames rumors of interference in this Sunday’s elections. Another powerful ally, President Trump, this week dispatched his vice president to Budapest to try to turn around Orbán’s campaign. At one of the rallies, JD Vance called his boss, who spoke directly to the prime minister’s supporters, to whom he was full of praise: “I’m a big fan of Viktor, I’m with him in every way, the USA is with him in every way.” This context reflects how this Sunday’s election in the small European country of 10 million matters to the USA, Russia, the European Union and Ukraine: despite Viktor Orbán or Péter Magyar, everyone wants to emerge victorious in the election.

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