What 3 historical episodes can indicate about the direction of the war in Iran

What 3 historical episodes can indicate about the direction of the war in Iran BBC The war started by the United States and Israel against Iran a month ago seems to have become predictable, within its unpredictability. It is also no surprise that US President Donald Trump’s social media posts appear to amplify the crisis and shake global markets, even if for brief periods. ✅ Follow the g1 international news channel on WhatsApp But Trump’s comments are not the only factor driving this war. History also seems to have a big influence. In the weeks since the conflict began, experts have increasingly turned to the past to try to understand the upheavals and predict where they are headed. And, in these attempts, there are three important historical episodes that stand out. See the videos that are trending on g1 1. The Suez Crisis (1956) The missile attack on Israel carried out by Yemen’s Houthis, supported by Iran, last week — the first since the start of the war — opened a new front in the conflict. The entry of the powerful Iranian ally raises fears of greater disruption to the world economy, as the group has the ability to attack ships in the Red Sea, particularly in the Suez Canal. The then President of Egypt, Gamal Abdel Nasser, understood the effectiveness of blocking the Suez Canal in putting an end to the attack by Anglo-French forces. Hulton-Deutsch Collection/Corbis/Getty Images via BBC The Houthis, in fact, cannot completely block that crucial route, through which 30% of the world’s container traffic and around 15% of global merchandise trade typically passes. But they can seriously harm access to the channel. Add to this the turmoil caused by Iran in the Strait of Hormuz and experts say the impacts on the global economy are potentially catastrophic. Against all this, analysts point to the Suez crisis 70 years ago as a lesson in the larger ramifications of the current war in the Middle East. When Egypt’s then president, Gamal Abdel Nasser (1918-1970), nationalized the Suez Canal in 1956 — which until then had been administered by British and French interests — he took control of one of the world’s main oil transportation routes. In response, France, the United Kingdom and Israel attempted to regain possession, without success. Egypt’s former president, Gamal Nasser, was considered a hero in the region for his handling of the Suez crisis. Hulton-Deutsch Collection/CORBIS/Corbis/Getty Images via BBC For Trump and his longtime ally, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, history offers sensible reflections in this regard. “More than anything else, the crisis marked the end of the UK’s era as a world power,” says BBC international editor Jeremy Bowen. “The country had imperial dominance in the Middle East since the First World War (1914-1918) and the episode was also the beginning of the end of that dominance.” Tehran and the Houthis’ current tactic of restricting access to economic arteries vital to the global economy bears reminiscences of Nasser’s reaction. By the time Anglo-French forces landed in the northern Suez Canal, Nasser had sunk dozens of ships, blocking the canal and cutting off an available safety line between Europe and its oil fields in the Persian Gulf, says American historian Alfred W. McCoy. The then President of the United States, Dwight D. Eisenhower (1890-1969), feared the opening of a growing and dangerous front in the Cold War (1947-1991) against the Soviet Union. Therefore, he intervened in the matter, forcing the United Kingdom and France to withdraw. “By that time… Britain had been sanctioned by the United Nations, its currency was on the brink of collapse, its aura as an imperial power had evaporated, and its global empire was headed toward extinction,” McCoy writes. The impact of the 1973 oil crisis on Americans lasted a decade. Smith Collection/Gado/Getty Images via BBC But the parallels with the current conflict are not exact, according to Bowen. “I’m not necessarily comparing the current power of the United States with what the United Kingdom had after the Second World War (1939-1945)”, he highlights. “What I’m saying is that all powerful nations have ups and downs.” “And with the United States facing the rise of China, if, in the future, people begin to observe American decline, historians might describe this episode as a step in that direction; a war that was started without giving much thought to the consequences.” And, to better understand the possible effects of the conflict, it is worth looking at other lessons offered by history over the last 70 years. 2. The oil shock (1973) In the decades that followed, other important economic arteries were blocked to cause as much damage as possible. New occurrences like these are totally predictable these days, according to observers. One of the clearest examples came just under 20 years after the disastrous Suez campaign. “In 1973, there was a war between Israel, Egypt and Syria,” says Bowen. “It was a surprise attack on Israel by the Egyptians and Syrians, the so-called Yom Kippur War.” “The Americans supplied Israel with weapons. Then the Arab world counterattacked by imposing an embargo, which massively raised the price of oil, causing a lot of damage to Western Europe.” The then Minister of Oil of Saudi Arabia, Sheikh Ahmed Zaki Yamani (1930-2021), explicitly showed, in 1973, how resources such as oil, with its impact on global markets, could be used as a tool of influence. He described the Arab world’s significant control of production as an “oil weapon” that could quickly lead to “collapse” of global economies. The embargo lasted five months, but experts say it was felt for a decade. Inflation, for example, has soared in the United States and other countries, which are highly dependent on oil for their industries. And as prices rose, so did interest rates, with central banks struggling to contain the rising cost of living. The Yom Kippur war of 1973 was not only fought on the battlefield, but also on international oil markets. Hulton Archive/Getty Images via BBC Today, oil as a commodity does not have the same global dominance as it did more than 50 years ago. The share of global demand is smaller than at the time and investments have been growing to develop more diversified sources of energy, particularly in the West. But oil is still a critical resource, and the events of 1973 offer fundamental lessons for Donald Trump. The United States now produces more energy than it consumes, unlike half a century ago. But the country still imports significant volumes of crude oil and is vulnerable to the cost of oil traded on the global market. This would eventually hit American consumers. The country may also suffer indirect impacts due to tensions with its main partners in Asia, which do not have such diversified energy sources and are suffering the greatest impact from the current oil shortage. “What is happening [agora] It’s not that the Saudis, the Emirates, etc. “They say they won’t sell their oil to their customers in Europe,” explains Bowen. “But Iran and potentially also the Houthis are making it very difficult for it to get to the market.” “Oil is very important. And if you cut off those supplies, you’re going to cause a lot of global disruption.” 3. The Iran-Iraq War (1980-1988) Historians say the war between Iran and Iraq, which dominated much of the 1980s, offers Donald Trump more recent and irrefutable historical examples of how Washington’s adversaries can block vital economic arteries. In the final years of that conflict, ships in the Strait of Hormuz were attacked by both Tehran and by Baghdad. Analysts say this was an attempt to draw world powers into the conflict. In the mid-to-late 1980s, the attacks were so serious that Kuwait asked for international help to sail its ships through the strait. Washington agreed, so as not to be overtaken by Moscow, its Cold War adversary. Barry Iverson/Getty Images. via BBC Called Operation Earnest Will, the tank escort began in July 1987. But it soon became a major embarrassment for the United States when Iranian mines hit the ship Bridgeton (which was supposed to be protected by the Americans), which was heading to Kuwait. Experts indicate that the incident highlighted how inadequate Washington’s minesweeping capabilities in the strait were, an issue that continued to hamper the operation. Trump’s recent call for operational support from other countries to keep the Strait of Hormuz open by providing naval escorts, the parallels are obvious. But the current challenge is even greater for Washington, according to analysts. After all, the tools of war have now included, for example, drones, and Iran no longer faces a protracted war with Iraq. History offers many lessons for the parties involved in the current war in the Middle East, especially for its protagonists. duration of the current global conflict.

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