The Strait of Hormuz, a maritime route through which approximately a fifth of the world’s oil and natural gas production passes, remains at the center of the war between the USA, Israel and Iran in the Middle East. After unsuccessful attempts to reopen the road blocked by threats from Tehran, President Donald Trump suggested that he could reach an agreement with the Islamic regime to jointly control the region.
Iran, which attacked dozens of oil tankers and other commercial ships that challenged its actions in recent weeks, has rejected all American proposals and generated true global chaos by interrupting the flow of energy. Now, the US is evaluating a series of ways to unblock the passage that has destabilized the global economy.
This Tuesday (24), the American press reported that the Pentagon is expected to send thousands more soldiers to the Middle East. Two American officials told the Wall Street Journal that approximately 3,000 soldiers from the Army’s 82nd Airborne Division are being mobilized.
What options are on the table for Trump?
1. International alliance for the security of the Strait of Hormuz
One of the first initiatives presented by the American leader was the offer of US Navy escort in the region, something that has so far proven difficult to get off the ground due to security and logistical limitations in the Strait of Hormuz, which have meant that vessels from countries that use the route have stopped passing goods.
Later, Trump suggested the formation of a international alliance to protect maritime traffic, an effort that exposed the hesitation of allies and other countries that use the route to transport their demand, such as China. But after coming under pressure, some longtime partners signed a European-led declaration supporting efforts to resume shipping in Hormuz, although it has not been clear so far how that coalition will work.
The UK last week sent a group of military experts to work with Washington to draw up a “workable collective plan” to reopen the route. While this plan is being developed, Iran has taken advantage of its advantage in Hormuz to negotiate directly with countries that use the strait, by charging an informal toll for commercial ships to pass through the region without risk to their integrity. According to Bloomberg, the regime would be demanding payments of up to US$2 million per trip through the strait.
For the US to be successful in an operation to reopen the passage, the military must locate and attack targets on the Iranian coast, responsible for the threat to navigation. However, the mission becomes complex due to Iran’s unique geography – which forces ships to sail just a few kilometers from its mountainous coast – and asymmetric warfare tactics, which allow the country to hide small, difficult-to-track weapons close to where these vessels pass.
One of the first countries to gain access through the sea passage was India, which negotiated a direct agreement with Iran for the flow of natural gas and oil.
Furthermore, Iran’s Foreign Minister, Abbas Araqchi, told the Japanese news agency Kyodo that he had spoken with the Japanese government about the possibility of allowing vessels linked to the country to pass through the strait – around 90% of its oil shipments pass through Hormuz.
Faced with the impasse, Trump threatened to “annihilate” Iranian power plants if the country did not fully clear the Strait of Hormuz by March 27. In response, the regime threatened to attack civilian energy infrastructure in neighboring countries, which has generated new tensions among Washington’s regional allies.
2. Negotiation with the Iranian regime
A second option already defended by Trump is the direct negotiation with Iran. This week, he even suggested that the US could control the strait through a partnership with the Iranian regime, which has denied any diplomatic contact with Washington since the start of the war.
Recently, the American leader temporarily authorized the removal of sanctions on Iranian oil that was already loaded on ships, a measure to increase the world’s energy supply and contain rising fuel prices.
Trump said his administration would be in direct negotiations with a “powerful figure” in Iran and those talks resulted in a delay in further attacks on Iran’s energy infrastructure.
This Tuesday (24), the president said that Iran made a major concession to the US in the energy sector, which he described as a “gift” involving the Strait of Hormuz, but did not give details of what was agreed. There are also rumors in the press about a 15-point peace plan being brokered by Pakistan.
3. Taking of Kharg Island
A third way that can contribute to the liberation of the Strait of Hormuz is to carry out new operations on Kharg Islandthe country’s main oil export center. But this time, the US is considering ground actions there, which has been avoided by Washington due to security risks.
Weeks ago, American forces attacked strategic targets linked to the Iranian Revolutionary Guard in Kharg, but the island’s energy infrastructure was preserved in order to serve as a bargaining chip in future negotiations, given the location’s importance to the regime. On the other hand, the White House leader considered taking the island if an agreement was not reached, a scenario that has been studied by the Pentagon.
According to an analysis by the newspaper The New York Timesit would take around 2,200 Marines on three warships, armed with drones, attack helicopters and fighter planes, to interrupt a patrol in the region and allow military entry by land through amphibious landings.
The Army’s 82nd Airborne Division, which could be deployed in the coming hours by the Pentagon, specializes in carrying out paratrooper attacks, signaling that the ground operations phase in Iran may be about to begin.
