Donald Trump’s administration has once again put pressure on Cuba amid the war in the Middle East. Almost daily, the US president has warned about the possible fall of the Havana regime in the short term.
This Monday (9), Trump took advantage of a press conference to comment on his government’s plans for the island. “It may or may not be a friendly takeover”responded to reporters at the time.
Pressure on the communist regime gained strength with the capture of Venezuelan dictator Nicolás Maduro, one of Cuba’s main regional allies, in early January. The new offensive in Iran also did not stop the American government from continuing to monitor the situation on the island, which is seen as the next focus on the American list.
Since his first administration (2017-2021), Trump has made it clear that overthrowing the Cuban regime is one of his priorities. In this second administration, he joined forces with a figure in the administration who has also been seeking the same goal for years: Secretary of State, Marco Rubio, son of Cuban immigrants.
Until now, the US cut off the supply of Venezuelan oil that was destined for Havana and promised to impose tariffs on any country that supplies them with oil, measures that deepened Cuba’s already acute economic crisis.
These new lockdowns resulted in a series of blackouts on the island and a growing fuel shortage. As a result, the regime led by Miguel Díaz-Canel needed to adopt emergency rationing actions.
When announcing the sanctions, the American government classified Cuba as a threat to US security, citing that the regime is aligned, including militarily, with “dangerous adversaries” of the United States, such as Russia, China and the terrorist group Hezbollah.
Agreement with the Cubans?
Trump has argued that Cuba’s precarious situation could bring the regime’s leaders to the negotiating table. The American newspaper USA Today revealed this week an American government plan to begin a political transition after more than six decades of dictatorship.
Two sources with knowledge of the government’s plans told the publication that the The White House is preparing an economic agreement that would result in the combined departure of dictator Miguel Díaz-Canel, the Castro family’s stay on the island and agreements on ports, energy and tourism. The proposal has not yet been officially confirmed by the Trump administration.
Unlike what is being carried out in Iran, the offensive against the Havana regime should not involve a campaign of brute force, as the island is already too economically fragile to withstand another coup. Washington must, on the other hand, maintain direct influence over the choice of a new leader for the country and the policies to be adopted by the new administration.
Last month, the portal Axios revealed that US Secretary of State Marco Rubio was holding secret talks with the grandson of former Cuban dictator Raúl Castro, considered the regime’s “strong man”.
US evaluates operation similar to the one carried out against Maduro in Venezuela
Without the existence of a peaceful agreement for the political transition, another option evaluated by Donald Trump’s government resembles the operation to capture dictator Nicolás Maduro.
A newspaper report The Washington Post revealed that the US Department of Justice would be creating a task force to examine possible federal charges against officials or entities of the Cuban regime.
The deposed Venezuelan leader was taken to the US in January, where he faces charges related to international drug trafficking. There is no forecast for his release in the short term.
Federal agencies, including the Treasury Department, would be seeking resources to support future specific interventions like the one carried out in Venezuela.
This possibility gains new support with the announcement of the “Shield of the Americas”, a plan led by Trump to combat drug trafficking on the continent. THE alliance was signed with 17 Latin American countries led by right-wing governments over the weekend in Miami.
Pressure on Cuba is also gaining strength among the Republican’s regional allies. The most recent example happened with Ecuador, led by the right-wing Daniel Noboawhich accused Cuba of being involved in acts of political interference in the Andean country. With the crisis, Trump’s ally decided to expel Cuban diplomats last week.
Argentine President Javier Milei, seen as Trump’s main political partner in Latin America, is a fierce critic of Cuba. This Tuesday, he renewed his rejection of the Havana regime by telling investors in New York that he managed to prevent his country from becoming like Cuba or Venezuela.
“When we took office, we were on the way to becoming Cuba with a stopover in Venezuela”, stated the president at the event when defending the policy implemented by him since 2023, which managed to reverse the economic crisis inherited from Peronism through a significant fiscal adjustment in a few months and lead the country towards a free market model without resorting to measures that affect deposits or private property.
