Nuclear weapons: Kim Jong-un’s survival calculation in the face of war in Iran

North Korea wants to expand missile production The war in Iran has been seen by analysts as a sign that US President Donald Trump is not willing to abandon interventionism. The death of Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, preceded by the capture of dictator Nicolás Maduro, raised the alarm about how far this movement could go, and whether American interest could also extend to Kim Jong-un’s North Korea. ✅ Follow g1’s international news channel on WhatsApp Although there are parallels between Iran and North Korea, both isolated and heavily sanctioned by the West, a difference in the two countries’ relationship with the US is crucial: Pyongyang has nuclear weapons. Preventing the development of devices of this type was precisely the White House’s justification for bombing Iran. But is this enough for Kim Jong-un to remain safe from American pressure? For Jeongmin Kim, director of consultancy Korea Risk Group, North Korea is trying to maintain a low profile at this time, far from the frenzy of denuclearization discourse that previously pressured its foreign policy and placed the country on the US list of priorities. “There are several reasons for North Korea to be very careful about how it approaches this. The North Korean nuclear arsenal is reportedly much more developed [que o do Irã]” he said. “But still, what happened in Iran was that during what they believed was a negotiation with the Trump administration, the attack occurred. From North Korea’s perspective, this is a scenario they really don’t want to see happen to themselves.” One of the most valuable lessons of recent events is that maintaining nuclear weapons is critical to the survival of the regime led by Kim Jong-un. Pyongyang can use the threat of its nuclear arsenal, combined with advances in ballistic missile technology, both as an instrument of pressure in negotiations and to ensure that the US would have to risk nuclear war to topple the regime. Denuclearization falls off the list of priorities North Korean leader Kim Jong-un and US President Donald Trump during a meeting in Panmunjom, South Korea, in June 2019 Kevin Lamarque/Reuters/File During the administration of former American president Barack Obama, the US maintained what it called “strategic patience” in relation to the North Korean nuclear program. The first Trump administration tried to act on the issue in a more incisive way. The two leaders met in Singapore in June 2018 for an unprecedented summit. months of hostile rhetoric – the American even called Kim a “rocket man on a suicide mission.” The meeting yielded a non-binding declaration from Pyongyang with the commitment to “complete denuclearization” of the Korean Peninsula. A year later, however, the proposal’s progress had already failed. “South Korea, its arsenal has been greatly strengthened, almost exponentially, because they now have solid fuel, liquid fuel and ballistic missiles that can attack Japan”, says researcher Jeongmin Kim. North Korea itself says it is capable of reaching even the continental United States. Analysts agree, however, that if Trump decides to resort to more robust tactics for the denuclearization of North Korea, Kim will seek help from his two most powerful allies: Russia and China. However, the two countries abstained “It is something that North Korean leaders observe: although we have a mutual defense clause and treaty with Russia and China, they will not be able to fully defend us when something like this happens”, assesses the expert and that American comments on the issue are irreversible. “Anachronistic.” “You can say goodbye to any remaining hope that Pyongyang would give up its nuclear weapons, as North Korea is simply not going to participate in any negotiations on anything,” says Andrei Lankov, professor of history and international relations at Kookmin University in Seoul. “The attacks on Iran are the final nail in that coffin.” in South Korea on March 6, 2025. Yonhap via AP Furthermore, the fact that North Korea is possibly relying more than ever on its nuclear program to ensure the regime’s survival could have huge implications for its southern neighbor. This is a problem for Seoul because they also don’t know how trustworthy their best allies are at this point. “The only blood ally that South Korea has, which is the United States, has become unreliable or basically untraditional,” he recalls. Jeongmin Kim. In the most recent US National Defense Strategy, South Korea was seen as capable of defending itself with its own means, which limits American military support to the country to critical cases. “From South Korea’s perspective, the risk and threat have increased, but so has the pressure on its own defenses when it comes to conventional capabilities.” North Korea managed to develop its nuclear program by deterring the United States, in 1994, from attacking its nuclear research facilities thanks to its ability to inflict massive damage on Seoul. Thus, the threat of Iranian retaliation for attacks on its nuclear program has never been as extreme as Pyongyang’s threat against South Korea. Overthrowing Kim Jong-un in Trump’s plans? North Korean leader Kim Jong Un visits a munitions factory in Pyongyang, Korea? of the North, in this photo released on March 12, 2026 by the Korean Central News Agency (KCNA), the official organ of North Korea. KCNA via REUTERS Despite the state of alert with the uncertain American actions, an attempt to overthrow Kim Jong-un by military means seems more distant. in an eventual intervention against Kim. “But there is no possibility of South Korea, at least the current government, carrying out an initial strike against North Korea unless there is a credible and imminent signal of a mass attack by the North Korean side against the South Korean side,” it states. “I think Pyongyang is watching how the situation is evolving and they should be quite satisfied with the results so far,” he says. They thought they would finish the job quickly, as they did in Venezuela, but now they seem to be trapped and suffering internal and international pressure.” VIDEOS: trending on g1 See the videos that are trending on g1

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