This March 3, 2026, Iran responds to the bombings of the US-Israeli coalition with an asymmetric strategy. The regime is betting on the massive use of low-cost drones, attacks on neighboring bases and the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz to increase the financial and military cost of the conflict.
What is the main objective of Iranian military strategy?
Iran does not seek a direct victory through brute force, as the US has official military superiority. Instead, the country uses a ‘war of attrition’. The plan is to launch waves of cheap drones and missiles to force adversaries to spend their defense stocks on expensive ammunition. The focus is on strategic attrition: winning through fatigue and the enemy’s financial exhaustion.
How does the conflict affect the global economy and the price of oil?
Iran’s biggest economic weapon is the threat to block the Strait of Hormuz, through which 20% of the world’s oil and gas passes. Analysts indicate that the price of a barrel of Brent oil has already risen to US$83 and could reach US$100. This increase generates global inflationary pressure, as the higher cost of fuel is passed on to the end consumer in almost all products and services.
Why is Iran attacking neighboring countries like Bahrain and Saudi Arabia?
By spreading attacks to countries that host American bases or offer logistical support, Iran expands the number of nations involved in the risk. This creates internal political pressure in these countries and forces the US to disperse its defenses. However, experts warn that this tactic could isolate the Persian regime, favoring regional rivals such as Saudi Arabia if the strategy is seen as a miscalculation.
What is the role of drones in this asymmetric warfare?
Iranian drones are low-cost tools that play a central role in propaganda and combat. The regime displays fleets of these vehicles to demonstrate operational control. In practice, they serve to saturate Israeli and US missile defense systems, which need to use expensive interceptors to shoot down equipment that costs a fraction of the value of a defensive missile.
How does this escalation affect Donald Trump’s government politically?
The Tehran regime seeks to send a direct message to Washington. As the American economy is sensitive to fluctuations in the financial market and energy prices, instability in the Gulf generates internal pressure on President Donald Trump. The goal is to make the economic costs of war make support for military strikes unpopular among American voters.
Content produced based on information gathered by the Gazeta do Povo team of reporters. To access the full information and delve deeper into the topic, read the report below.
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