Why the US population had a ‘historic brake’ on growth and what consequences this could have

Flow of people in Times Square, New York Getty Images via BBC The United States population growth rate fell to 0.5% between July 2024 and June 2025, according to estimates from the US Census Bureau — considered a historic drop. It is one of the lowest rates the US has recorded since the beginning of the 20th century, a period that includes difficult times like the Great Depression and the Covid pandemic. Historically, the US has experienced steady population growth year after year. In the 1950s — during the so-called “Baby Boom” — the average population growth rate was 1.8%. In the 1990s, this rate was 1.2%, falling to 1% during the first decade of this century. Since 1900, there has been only one recorded period of population decline in the US: between July 1917 and June 1918, when the population declined by approximately 60,000 people, equivalent to 0.06% of the population at the time. This was due to the unusual combination of three factors: deaths caused by both the Spanish flu pandemic, deaths caused by the First World War, and a temporary drop in the birth rate — the last factor being associated with the first two. More recently, population growth bottomed out during the pandemic, falling to 0.2% in 2021 due to factors including rising mortality and forced reductions in immigration. Aside from the Covid years, the only recent year in which population growth fell to levels similar to current levels was 2019, something experts attributed to a lower number of births and a drop in immigration. But what is happening now? Trump plans to expand immigration crackdown in 2026: ‘numbers are going to explode’ Immigrants not coming, residents leaving The US Census Bureau attributes the decline in population growth to the reduction in net international migration — which is the result of subtracting the number of immigrants (people entering the country) from the number of emigrants (people leaving the country). “With birth and death rates remaining relatively stable compared to a year ago, the sharp decline in net international migration is the primary reason for the slower growth rate we are seeing today,” said Christine Hartley, deputy director of the Census Bureau’s Division of Estimates and Projections, in a press release issued this week. She described the drop as “historic”, going from 2.7 million (2023-2024) to 1.3 million (2024-2025). William Frey, senior researcher specializing in demography at the Brookings Institution — a think tank based in Washington — highlights that the 2024 net migration balance, of 2.7 million, is one of the highest recorded in recent times, and that even the 1.3 million from the previous year also represent a high number when compared to historical standards. Both Frey and the Census Bureau estimate that the rate of net international migration will continue to decline in the coming years. Fewer arrivals, more deportations Since Trump’s arrival in the White House, the number of people trying to enter the US has decreased Getty Images via BBC Experts say the increasing difficulties foreigners face in traveling to the US are among the factors that may be affecting the number of migrants and, consequently, population growth. Since Donald Trump’s return to the White House, the American government has taken several measures to restrict the entry of foreigners into the USA, such as tightening requirements for issuing student and work visas and restricting the process of applying for asylum or refugee status. At the same time, the government implemented a harsh deportation campaign against undocumented migrants, which included, in some cases, sending these individuals to third countries such as El Salvador. The government also revoked temporary protections granted under Joe Biden’s administration to hundreds of thousands of migrants through mechanisms such as Temporary Protected Status (TPS) and humanitarian parole. Trump administration officials have made clear they disagree with these protections and have called on those who benefit from them to leave the country voluntarily under threat of forced deportation. The drastic reduction in attempts to enter the US is evident in official statistics. According to data from the Customs and Border Protection agency, the number of “encounters” (a term used to describe when agents come into contact with a foreign national who is trying to enter the country but does not meet the required criteria) in February 2025 was 28,613, which represents a drop of just over 12% compared to the same month in 2024. This downward trend continued throughout the second half of 2025. The Department of Homeland Security reported that between October and November 2025, border agents had recorded 60,940 “encounters.” According to the department, this number is lower than those recorded in any previous fiscal year to date and is 28% lower than the previous low of 84,293 recorded in fiscal year 2012. Frey believes that reduced immigration to the US has had a greater impact than deportations on the recent drop in population growth, although he does not rule out the possibility that this could change in the future. Wendy Edelberg, Stan Veuger and Tara Watson, other experts at the Brookings Institution, agree with this assessment. In mid-January, they published an analysis on the macroeconomic impact of these immigration policies. “While deportations and other departures receive more media attention, the slowdown in new arrivals—especially through humanitarian parole, refugee programs, and the southwest border—has a greater effect on reducing migration flows by 2025,” they wrote. But what does this drop in US population growth indicate and what consequences could it have? The Economic Effects of Negative Immigration The Census Bureau analysis found that the US is heading towards negative net international migration, that is, a situation in which more people leave the country than enter, something that has not happened since 1971. According to the Brookings Institution analysis cited, this is likely to have already occurred by 2025. “We estimate that net migration was between -295 thousand and -10 thousand in that year. By 2026, we project that the Net migration will likely remain in negative territory. These numbers come with the caveat that recent reductions in data transparency make estimates more uncertain,” the experts wrote. What would this mean for the US economy? Probably a slowdown in employment and growth. According to the study, the increase in immigration observed between 2022 and 2024 “was accompanied by strong employment growth, with immigrants providing labor and generating demand for goods and services.” Experts estimate that, during the second half of 2025, employment grew at a monthly rate of 20,000 to 50,000 vacancies, consistent with migratory flows, but warn that, in 2026, these numbers could become negative. “The reduction in immigration also has moderate containment effects on GDP and will weaken consumption by an estimated value of between US$60 billion and US$110 billion over the two years”, they warn. William Frey points out that the continued reduction in the rate of immigration will result in a smaller and older American population. This is a problem that some European countries already face and that the USA managed to avoid, largely thanks to immigration, which is fundamental to the increase in the country’s young population. The expert highlights that the 2010 and 2020 censuses recorded a decrease in the population under 18 years of age in the USA. “The situation would have been worse if it weren’t for immigrants and their children, because immigrants are younger and there are more women of reproductive age. And this helps to increase the birth rate”, he observes. He explains that although the percentage of people in the US who were born abroad is about 15%, immigration has a significant impact on those under the age of 18, as approximately 28% are immigrants or children of immigrants born in the country. “So if we reduce immigration, not only will this youth population continue to decline among those under 18, but the working-age youth population will also decline. And if the overall labor force stagnates instead of growing, that’s not good for the American economy,” he adds. “Some people don’t like to hear this sometimes, but we really are still a nation of immigrants. That’s what made us successful during our best years. If we have to look at a future where we are no longer a nation of immigrants, where the population grows even slower and ages even faster, I don’t think that will help us economically, or as a great power, to connect well with other parts of the world,” he says. “We have a global economy of young people who are online, trying to make their way in industries and looking for learning opportunities around the world. It’s young people who are doing this, not older people. And that’s why we need more young people. And if we can bring them in from other countries, that will be really good,” he concludes.

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