Iran is considered an important ally of the main powers that compete with the USA for influence in the world today, China and Russia. However, this partnership does not appear to be sufficient for military cooperation in the event of a new American attack.
Beijing, Iran’s biggest oil buyer, has maintained a low profile amid the wave of protests that has gripped the country in recent weeks, limiting itself to asking through diplomacy that Washington not interfere in another nation’s internal affairs.
This discreet stance of Xi Jinping’s dictatorship contrasts with the political proximity it maintains with the Islamic regime, with which it signed a strategic partnership agreement in 2021, which establishes a comprehensive structure of cooperation in the economic, technological, energy and security areas.
On the other hand, Vladimir Putin’s regime has adopted a more alarmist tone, suggesting that the possible consequences of US military action in the Middle East could be “disastrous” not just for Iran, but for the entire world.
The speeches of the two countries, however, do not indicate that they would be willing to act directly in a possible conflict with an ally. Ellie Geranmayeh, senior public policy expert at the European Council on Foreign Relations think tank, told AFP that in the event of a war between the US and Iran, “both the Chinese and the Russians will prioritize their bilateral relationship with Washington.”
This is because, according to the analyst, these two countries have “much higher priorities” than supporting an ally like Iran militarily.
Russia maintains focus on Ukraine and domestic economic decline
Russia remained largely silent during the weeks following the outbreak of mass protests in Iran that left thousands dead.
Putin’s regime remains focused on maintaining its war with Ukraine, while having to deal with high defense spending to maintain it. This makes it difficult to mobilize to help its allies such as Iran and Venezuela.
Moscow and Tehran strengthened ties following Russia’s large-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022, when the Islamic regime began supplying Iranian Shahed drones to carry out attacks on civilian infrastructure in Kiev.
Speaking to AFP, Alexander Gabuev, director of the Carnegie Russia-Eurasia Center, assessed that the Russian regime would do everything in its power “to keep the regime afloat”, however “Russia’s options are very limited” given other priorities.
“The Ukrainian crisis is much more important for Russia than the Iranian crisis.” pointed out Nikita Smagin, an expert on Russia-Iran relations to the French agency.
Limited partnership with China
The alliance with Iran is one of the pillars that support China’s presence in the Middle East, where the Asian giant has been trying for years to consolidate its influence, also taking advantage of the distance between the USA and Russia in the region.
China has already made clear in the past the importance it attaches to the region: in 2023, it mediated the reestablishment of diplomatic relations between Iran and Saudi Arabia and, a year later, it hosted negotiations in Beijing between Palestinian political factions, which had long been opposed to each other, resulting in a unity agreement between the terrorist group Hamas, the Fatah party and a dozen other groups.
Quoted by the South China Morning Post, Wen Shaobiao, a Middle East expert at Shanghai University of International Studies, assesses that “Beijing will maintain a calm and observant stance and will not get involved under any circumstances.”
According to the expert, China’s biggest concern with the escalation of tensions is that an Iranian conflict will spread — for example, with a refugee crisis — and further destabilize a region where Beijing has important economic and commercial interests.
Stability is also an important factor in realizing the New Silk Road, an expansionist project by dictator Xi Jinping, fundamental to his energy interests, as China is the largest buyer of oil in the world.
For Theo Nencini, researcher on Iran-China relations at Sciences Po Grenoble, a weakened Iran could also be beneficial for Beijing.
“China is benefiting from a weakened Iran, which allows it to secure low-cost oil and acquire a considerable geopolitical partner,” he said.
