What might happen if the US attacks Iran? 7 possible scenarios

US President Donald Trump and Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei EPA via BBC The United States appears poised to attack Iran in the coming days. While the potential targets are largely predictable, the outcome is not. So, if no last-minute deal is reached with Iran and US President Donald Trump decides to order an attack by US forces, what could be the possible scenarios? Trump pressures Iran for agreement and Tehran returns threat 1. Punctual and surgical strikes, few civilian casualties and transition to democracy Here, US air and naval forces carry out limited, precision strikes against military bases of Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps and the Basij unit, a paramilitary force under the control of the Revolutionary Guard, as well as launch and storage sites for ballistic missiles and Iranian nuclear program facilities. An already weakened regime would be overthrown and would, over time, undergo a transition to genuine democracy, allowing Iran to reintegrate with the rest of the world. This is a highly optimistic scenario. Western military interventions in Iraq and Libya have not resulted in smooth transitions to democracy. Although they ended brutal dictatorships in both cases, they ushered in years of chaos and bloodshed. Syria, which led its own revolution and overthrew President Bashar al-Assad without Western military support in 2024, has achieved better results so far. 2. The regime survives, but moderates its policies This scenario could be called, in general terms, the “Venezuelan model”, in which rapid and forceful action by the US keeps the regime in power, but leads to the moderation of its policies. In the case of Iran, this would mean the survival of the Islamic Republic, which would not satisfy part of the Iranian population, but the country would be forced to reduce support for violent militias throughout the Middle East, to end or limit its nuclear and ballistic missile programs, in addition to easing the repression of internal protests. Again, this is an unlikely scenario. The Islamic Republic’s leadership has remained resistant to change for 47 years. Everything indicates that it is unable to change its course at this moment. American military deployments in the Persian Gulf BBC 3. The regime collapses and is replaced by a military government Many consider this the most likely outcome. Although Iran’s regime is clearly unpopular among many, and successive waves of protests have weakened the Iranian regime over the years, there remains a vast and influential state security apparatus with an interest in maintaining the status quo. The main reasons why the protests have so far failed to topple the regime are the absence of significant defections among the military to the side of the protesters and the willingness to remain in power of those in control to use force and brutality without restraint. In the confusion that would follow possible US attacks, it is possible that Iran could end up governed by a strong military regime, largely made up of members of the Revolutionary Guard. 4. Iran retaliates by attacking US forces and neighboring countries Iran has vowed to retaliate against any US attack, saying “its finger is on the trigger.” Although it is clearly at a disadvantage to the might of the US Navy and Air Force, Iran could respond with its arsenal of ballistic missiles and drones, many of them hidden in caves, underground or in remote mountains. There are US bases and facilities scattered along the Arab side of the Gulf, especially in Bahrain and Qatar, but Iran could also, if it so chose, target critical infrastructure in nations it considers complicit in a US offensive, such as Jordan. The devastating missile and drone attack against Saudi Aramco petrochemical facilities in 2019, attributed to an Iranian-backed militia in Iraq, showed the Saudis the country’s degree of vulnerability to Iranian missiles. Iran’s Arab neighbors in the Gulf, all US allies, are understandably apprehensive. 5. Iran Retaliates by Laying Mines in the Gulf This threat has long loomed over global shipping and oil supplies, dating back to the Iran-Iraq War (1980-88), when Iran actually laid mines in shipping lanes and Royal Navy minesweepers helped clear them. The Strait of Hormuz, between Iran and Oman, is a critical bottleneck. Around 20% of world exports of liquefied natural gas (LNG) and between 20% and 25% of oil and petroleum derivatives pass through the region annually. Iran has already carried out exercises to rapidly deploy sea mines. If this capability were put into practice, the impact on world trade and oil prices would be inevitable. The Strait of Hormuz, between Iran and Oman, is a critical bottleneck BBC 6. Iran retaliates by sinking US warship A US Navy captain aboard a warship in the Gulf once told me that one of the threats from Iran that worries him most is a “swarm attack.” In this type of offensive, Iran simultaneously launches a large number of explosive drones and fast torpedo boats against one or multiple targets, so that even the U.S. Navy’s formidable short-range defenses cannot eliminate them all in time. The Revolutionary Guard Navy long ago replaced the conventional Iranian Navy in the Gulf, whose commanders were trained in Dartmouth (United Kingdom) during the time of Shah Mohammad Reza Pahlavi, who was an ally of the US and was overthrown from power in 1979 during the Islamic Revolution that started the current regime. Iranian naval crews have focused much of their training on unconventional, or “asymmetric” warfare, seeking ways to overcome or circumvent the technological advantages of their main adversary, the U.S. Navy’s Fifth Fleet. The sinking of an American warship, accompanied by the possible capture of survivors from its crew, would be an enormous humiliation for the United States. Although this scenario is considered unlikely, the destroyer USS Cole, worth billions of dollars, was damaged in an al-Qaeda suicide attack in the port of Aden (Yemen) in 2000, which killed 17 American sailors. Before that, in 1987, an Iraqi jet pilot mistakenly fired two Exocet missiles at the US warship USS Stark, killing 37 sailors. 7. The Iranian regime collapses and is replaced by chaos This is a very real risk and one of the main concerns of neighboring countries like Qatar and Saudi Arabia. In addition to the possibility of civil war, as experienced by Syria, Yemen and Libya, there is also the risk that, amid the chaos and confusion, ethnic tensions will spill over into armed conflict, as Kurds, Baluchis and other minorities seek to protect their own groups in the face of a power vacuum on a national scale. Much of the Middle East would certainly be pleased to see the end of the Islamic Republic, especially Israel, which has already carried out significant blows against Iran’s allies in the region and which fears an existential threat posed by Iran’s nuclear program. However, no one wants to see the most populous country in the Middle East — with around 93 million inhabitants — descend into chaos, triggering a humanitarian and refugee crisis. The greatest danger now is that President Trump, after mobilizing military forces close to the Iranian borders, decides to act so as not to lose face, starting a war without a clear outcome and with unpredictable and potentially damaging consequences.

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