President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva leads all first round scenarios if the elections were held today, according to a Genial/Quaest survey released this Wednesday (14).
In the first scenario, Lula would have 36% of voting intentions if he ran against Flávio (23%), Tarcísio (9%), and Ratinho Jr. (7%). In the previous survey, released on December 16, Lula had 41% of voting intentions against 23% for Flávio and 13% for Ratinho Jr.
In the scenario in which both Flávio, Ratinho Jr., Caiado and Zema are candidates, Lula would have 35% of voting intentions; Flávio, 26%; Mouse, 9%; Whitewashed 4% and Zema 3%.
In these simulations, Lula continues to have an advantage, but Flávio Bolsonaro is consolidated in the opposition. On Tarde Band News, presenter Vitor Brown analyzed the survey data with political scientist and partner at Tendências Consultoria, Rafael Cortez.
For him, the numbers from the first Quaest survey of the year make it more difficult for Flávio to withdraw from his candidacy.
“The idea given to voters is that Tarcísio would be the representative of a more moderate version of the opposition, but the comparison of both shows a much more favorable scenario for Flávio in the first round. It becomes increasingly difficult for Flávio’s candidacy Flavio not materialize or for there to be a withdrawal from that family nucleus of former president Bolsonaro”.
In the only scenario that excludes Flávio and includes Tarcísio, Caiado, Renan Santos (Missão) and Aldo Rebelo (DC), the current president has 39% against 27% for Tarcísio, 5% for Caiado, 4% for Santos and 3% for Rebelo.
Quaest tested different possibilities that keep Flávio as a candidate, but the other right-wing candidates vary. Among the scenarios tested, Lula would have a higher percentage of voting intentions (40%) if he ran against Flávio (23%), Tarcísio (14%), Renan (2%) and Aldo (2%).
Replacing Tarcísio with Ratinho, Lula would have 37%; Flávio, 28%; Mouse, 11%; Renan, 2%; and Aldo, 2%. With Zema, Lula would have 39%; Flávio, 32%, and Zema, 5%. Against Caiado, Lula has 38% of voting intentions; Flávio, 31%; and Caiado, 5%.
For Cortez, the uncertainty surrounding a name that consolidates support from the right and the center is still captured in the survey.
“When we look at the different scenarios, Lula seems to have found a floor for the first round of around 35%, a little more, a little less.
On the other hand, the opposition has not yet defined itself. Will there be multiple candidates? Is it really going to be Flávio Bolsonaro? Will he be able to unite Bolsonarism and the centrão? These other variations in the survey have to do with this uncertainty about who will be the opposition candidate in 2026”.
The research also mapped the government’s assessment. Lula registers 49% disapproval and 47% approval, according to Genial/Quaest.
The numbers remain stable in relation to the previous survey, carried out in December, when disapproval was 49% and approval was 48%.
“This stability seems to me to have a lot to do with the way Brazilian society evaluates the performance of President Lula’s government. In other words, society and the electorate seem to look at the presidential election as a time to punish or reward President Lula’s performance. So, when we look at approval and disapproval, the rates are very similar. Society is fundamentally divided between good performance or bad performance, which means that it seems to indicate an election that will be close”, concludes Cortez.
MARKET REACTION
The research had repercussions on the financial market. The Ibovespa soared and ended this Wednesday with an increase of almost 2% to 165 thousand 145 points, in another record day. The dollar closed with an increase of 0.47% and was at R$5.40.
For Leonardo Santana, investment specialist and partner at the analysis house Top Gain, the result encouraged the financial market.
“We imagined that we would have much more volatility, much more impact, but it ended up not changing much of the market’s expectations. The research still consolidates Lula ahead in all scenarios and points to the consolidation of Flávio Bolsonaro’s candidacy, because it was still an unknown.
This slightly removes the suggestion that Tarcísio is running for office, but there is still another side that puts Tarcísio a little ahead in a specific scenario.
This movement brought a continuation, because we were already working positively on the day in other aspects, but Quaest ended up encouraging the market even more”.
Even so, Santana pointed out that Tarcísio’s candidacy is what investors like most.
“The market is already working with what it doesn’t want, which was firstly Flávio Bolsonaro’s candidacy. The market was counting heavily on Tarcísio as a right-wing candidate and he was already working with the fact that Lula was ahead in the polls and is already working with a bad fact, which is what the market doesn’t want: the continuation of this government”, he concludes.
