For the first time in more than a century, the Canadian Army has drawn up a theoretical scheme about the country’s possible response to a US invasion, according to the newspaper reported on Tuesday (20). The Globe and Mail.
The plans, confirmed to the newspaper by two high-ranking Canadian government officials, indicate that Canada’s response to US military superiority would be to employ tactics similar to those used by the Afghans against Russia and the US itself in the 20th century.
The newspaper also highlighted that this modeling of response to a hypothetical invasion is a different step, and on a smaller scale, than the elaboration of a military plan, which would require the detailed design of the execution of military operations.
Government officials who confirmed the existence of the theoretical scheme also indicated to the newspaper that they consider it unlikely that US President Donald Trump will order an invasion of Canada.
One of them also highlighted that relations between the militaries of the two countries are positive and that they continue to collaborate on common defense projects.
However, the fact that the Canadian Army – which has a contingent of around 100,000 people, of which only 68,000 are on active duty and the rest make up reserve forces – is considering, even theoretically, an American invasion is a sign of the drastic change in relations between the two neighboring countries.
Since winning the presidential election in November 2024, Trump has signaled on numerous occasions his interest in annexing Canada and turning it into the 51st US state.
American broadcaster NBC reported this weekend that Trump has increased his complaints about Canada’s vulnerability in the Arctic, an argument similar to the one he is using to justify his desires to annex Greenland.
Modeling carried out by the Canadian armed forces indicates that the country’s army would not be able to resist American forces for more than a week, at best. From that point on, Canada would have to apply the logic of guerrilla warfare, with ambush and sabotage tactics carried out by small paramilitary units or armed civilians.
The Canadian military also anticipates in its model that the country could request help from two nuclear-armed European nations, the United Kingdom and France, to defend the territory.
Ottawa maintains a special historical and cultural relationship with both of Canada’s former colonial powers. The British monarch, currently Charles III, is also Canada’s constitutional head of state, and the province of Quebec, whose only official language is French, is a former French colony that still maintains a strong link with Paris.
