“This is a historic day. It is not just the end of a war, this is the end of the era of terror and death”, declared the President of the United States, Donald Trump, during his speech in the Israeli Parliament this Monday (13), marking the return of the last 20 survivors of captivity in Gaza.
Although the Trump team’s negotiations with Israel, Hamas and Arab countries have opened seemingly insurmountable doors, the long-awaited peace agreement to end the current conflict in the Middle East is still far from being a reality.
In an interview with People’s Gazetteeconomist Igor Lucena, doctor in international relations from the University of Lisbon and CEO of Amero Consulting, pointed out that, in practice, what we have so far is a ceasefire with the possibility of transforming into a genuine peace agreement.
The Trump team’s mediation resulted in a significant breakthrough in negotiations between Israel and Hamas, which had been deadlocked for months – previously, the parties had agreed to a truce between January and March that guaranteed the release of 25 Israeli hostages alive and the handover of the remains of eight others, but then fighting resumed.
However, the most sensitive points of Trump’s peace project, such as the formation of a provisional government for Gaza, the reconstruction of the enclave and the disarmament of the Palestinian terrorist group, still lack agreement between the sides.
Since Friday, the Israeli Army has halted its operations in the Palestinian enclave, following the instructions established in the agreement.
However, this Monday, the country denounced a possible violation by Hamas, by handing over only four of the 28 bodies of hostages awaited by families in Israel.
Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s government has already signaled that it may react if it understands that the terrorist group is purposely delaying the return of victims.
Before Trump spoke in Parliament this Monday, Netanyahu declared that, if the Republican remains committed to this peace, he will also keep his word.
However, statements by the Prime Minister the previous day signaled that the war was not over. Netanyahu said that Israel continues to face “great challenges” in terms of security and that the country’s “enemies” are trying to recover to attack it again.
The Israeli president also declined an invitation to participate in the Summit for Peace in Gaza, in Sharm el-Sheikh, Egypt, which was attended by Trump and several leaders from countries in the region and Europe.
According to his office in a statement, he did not participate in the event due to the proximity of the start of the Simchat Torah holiday, the last day of the Jewish festive period of Sukkot.
For Lucena, the actual end of the war will depend on a series of actions led by the United States in the region, especially with Arab countries, since the Donald Trump government is the only one currently able to dialogue with both sides of this conflict.
“This will be possible if the United States has the capacity to coordinate with the Arab world the return of the Abraham Accords [tratados mediados pelos EUA para normalizar relações entre o mundo árabe e Israel]and at the same time we need to watch Israel recognize a Palestinian state, without the participation of Hamas, with an international military coalition led by the Arab world, Saudi Arabia, Qatar, guaranteeing the security of the enclave and with support from the United States”, he analyzed.
According to analysis of the CNNmany regional leaders want firm signs that the ongoing process will result in an eventual Palestinian state, as they advocate – including Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, the de facto ruler of the most powerful Gulf state, with whom Trump has a close relationship.
Lucena pointed out that, at this stage, the Trump administration must prioritize the coordination and maintenance of this peace agreement, taking the process to its conclusion. “If this coordination does not advance, if the normalization of relations between the Arab world and Israel does not become viable, unfortunately we will see new clashes in the future [na região]”, he warned.
Aaron David Miller, former American Middle East negotiator and senior fellow at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, told The Wall Street Journal (WSJ) that Trump needs to “be prepared to take this [sua iniciativa pela paz no Oriente Médio] until the end.”
“If he doesn’t do this, the agreement will be lost and the scenario will end up returning to a Gaza that looks more like October 6 [de 2023, véspera dos atentados que desencadearam a guerra]whether Hamas is involved or not,” said Miller.
