Vice-governor Celina Leão (Progressistas) appears ahead in the race for government of the Federal District (DF) in the 2026 elections, according to a survey released this Thursday (30) by the Paraná Research Institute.
The study shows a fierce dispute with former governor José Roberto Arruda — who, by decision of the Superior Court of Justice (STJ), had upheld the sentence that makes him ineligible due to administrative improbity in one of the processes linked to Operation Pandora’s Box —, and who comes in second place in voting intentions.
The survey interviewed 1,506 voters between October 23 and 27, 2025. The margin of error is plus or minus 2.6 percentage points, and the confidence level is 95%.
Scenario 1: Celina and Arruda appear technically tied
In the first scenario, Celina Leão has 32.2% of voting intentions, while Arruda registers 29.8%.
Next come Leandro Grass (11.8%), Ricardo Cappelli (6.4%) and Paula Belmonte (6.0%).
Among those interviewed, 8.6% said they would vote blank or null, and 5% said they did not know or preferred not to answer.
Scenario 2: Celina extends her lead
When the number of candidates is reduced, Celina Leão opens up an advantage and reaches 36.9%, against 32.7% for Arruda.
Leandro Grass has 14.5% of voting intentions. Another 10.3% declared a blank or null vote, and 5.6% did not know how to give their opinion.
Second round: technical draw between Celina and Arruda
In the second round simulation between Celina Leão and José Roberto Arruda, there is a technical tie: 42.5% for Celina and 42.4% for Arruda.
The share of blanks and nulls is 10.2%, and 5% of voters did not respond.
Celina would beat Grass in a direct confrontation
In an alternative scenario of a second round between Celina Leão and Leandro Grass, the vice-governor would win with 57.1% of the votes, against 25.3% for her opponent.
In this case, 11.1% would vote blank or null, and 6.5% did not know how to give their opinion.
Arruda would surpass Grass in another simulation
When the dispute is between José Roberto Arruda and Leandro Grass, the former governor leads with 55.8%, while Grass records 24.6%.
Another 12.2% would vote blank or null, and 7.4% did not respond.
Michelle Bolsonaro leads Senate race in DF
Paraná Pesquisas also assessed voting intentions for the Federal Senate in 2026.
Former first lady Michelle Bolsonaro (PL) appears ahead in all tested scenarios.
Scenario 1: Michelle leads with 34.1%
In the first scenario, Michelle Bolsonaro accounts for 34.1% of voting intentions, followed by Ibaneis Rocha (30.2%) and Leila do Vôlei (23.2%).
Erika Kokay (21.4%), Fred Linhares (20.7%), Paulo Octávio (13.7%), Bia Kicis (12.2%), Reguffe (12.1%) and Sebastião Coelho (7.9%) also appear.
Voters who declared a blank or invalid vote totaled 5%, and 3.9% did not know how to give their opinion.
Scenario 2: Ibaneis maintains position and Michelle continues ahead
In the second scenario, Michelle Bolsonaro maintains the lead with 34.3%, while Ibaneis Rocha appears with 30.7%.
Following are Leila do Vôlei (22.4%), Erika Kokay and Fred Linhares (21.5%), Paulo Octávio (13.3%), Reguffe (12.5%), Izalci (9.8%) and Sebastião Coelho (8.9%).
Another 5.1% declared a blank or null vote, and 3.7% were unable to respond.
Approval from the Ibaneis Rocha government
In addition to voting intentions, the survey also measured the evaluation of the administration of governor Ibaneis Rocha (MDB).
According to the institute, 61% of respondents approve of the administration, while 35.9% disapprove. Only 3.1% were unable to give their opinion.
Laura Basílio under the supervision of Thiago San.
