Meeting with Trump was a ‘tremendous victory’ for Lula and ‘will have a significant impact on the election’, says political scientist

Negotiation closes flank of Lula’s campaign in 2026, assesses Hussein Kalout. REUTERS President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva (PT) managed, in a few months, to reverse the unease with the United States government and met with President Donald Trump this Sunday (10/26), in Malaysia, where both are participating in the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (Asean) summit. The conversation was marked by a cordial atmosphere, with Trump saying he was “honored” to meet the Brazilian president. SEE THE VIDEO BELOW: White House publishes photo of Lula and Trump: ‘Great honor to be with the president of Brazil’ For political scientist Hussein Kalout, former secretary of Strategic Affairs in the Michel Temer (MDB) government, the meeting was a “tremendous victory” for the PT member and “will have a significant electoral impact” in 2026, when Lula will seek a fourth presidential term. On the other side, he sees the Bolsonaro camp weakened, with former president Jair Bolsonaro (PL) convicted of an attempted coup d’état and Trump, his most important ally, praising Lula. This does not mean, however, that the 50% tariff imposed on products imported from Brazil will be easily reversed. These negotiations are likely to last longer, and the outcome will depend on each side’s willingness to make concessions, says Kalout. The next conversation between the two countries is scheduled for Monday (27/10), still in Malaysia, between Chancellor Mauro Vieira and the US trade representative, Jamieson Greer. “Trump is open to negotiating. He may reduce tariffs for some products and not for others”, ponders Kalout. Still, in his view, the episode leaves the president in a good position with the Brazilian productive sector, affected by the tariffs. Shortly after the presidents’ meeting, the National Confederation of Industry (CNI) released a note evaluating the meeting as “positive”: “The dialogue between the two leaders represents a concrete advance in bilateral negotiations and reinforces the commitment of both governments to building balanced solutions for trade between Brazil and the United States.” In Kalout’s view, the rapprochement between Lula and Trump empties the discourse that opposing candidates could use against the president in the election campaign. “Before this meeting, it would be a flank [para a campanha de Lula] any right-wing candidate can say that he can establish better relations with the United States than Lula, in favor of benefits for the productive sector”, says the political scientist. “This flank will no longer exist, unless the negotiations break down by then. And, obviously, the government will be very careful to avoid this failure.” Kalout believes that the Lula administration will do everything possible to maintain these electoral dividends in the race for the Presidency in 2026. “The government, on the threshold, may eventually make concessions that it would not otherwise be willing to make. [em outro momento] so as not to lose this political victory. Or he can make attractive offers to the Americans to keep the negotiations ongoing and this good dialogue.” Trump and Lula in their first formal meeting, in Malaysia. REUTERS For Kalout, Lula’s political experience was important in overcoming the crisis with Trump and the PT member knew how to act “with patience, firmness and prudence.” On the other hand, he notes that the American president’s change in stance is related to economic interests, since the Tariffs make products imported from Brazil more expensive, generating inflation in the USA. Furthermore, he states, Trump’s approach has to do with the fear that Brazil would lean more towards China’s orbit. “The American strategy seems clear to me. They understood the weight and importance of Brazil economically and strategically”, says Kalout, In a post on Twitter, Lula said that the meeting was “great” and added that negotiations continue “immediately” to seek solutions for the tariff and also for sanctions against Brazilian authorities imposed by Trump, in the context of Bolsonaro’s trial. READ ALSO: Hugo Motta, Alckmin and Eduardo Bolsonaro: see reactions to the meeting between Lula and Trump Trump was impressed by the time Lula was imprisoned and demonstrated ’empathy’, according to advisors The impact on Bolsonarism The sanctions adopted by Trump against Brazil were justified as a response to an alleged persecution of former president Jair Bolsonaro by the Brazilian justice system. In addition to the tariff, the White House suspended the visas of seven ministers of the Federal Supreme Court and applied financial punishments to minister Alexandre de Moraes, using the Magnitsky law. Even so, the Court sentenced Bolsonaro to 27 years in prison for attempting a coup d’état. The measures were adopted in recent months after the strong performance of Congressman Eduardo Bolsonaro (PL-SP) with the American government, after moving to Washington in February. In September, the Attorney General’s Office filed a complaint with the STF against the deputy and blogger Paulo Renato Figueiredo for coercion due to his campaign in the States United. If, at that moment, the former president’s son made clear his family’s prestige in the Trump administration, now the Republican’s meeting with Lula “burys the strength of Bolsonarism in the White House”, notes Kalout. In his view, this scenario is unlikely to be reversed, although the American president can often act in a volatile manner. “Is Trump mercurial? Yes. If he realizes that Lula is very weakened in a year’s time and that Bolsonaro is strengthened, he may change his opinion. But it is not the scenario that is envisaged”, assesses Kalout. The former president has been preventively under house arrest since August. Although he can still appeal his conviction, the expectation is that the STF will maintain the decision. In addition to asking for an end to tariffs, Lula is also trying to convince Trump to remove the sanctions against the STF ministers. So far, however, the American president has given no indication that he will do so. Kalout, the tendency is for the sanctions to be maintained, because their removal so quickly would be an admission that the US was wrong to accuse the STF of persecuting Bolsonaro. On the other hand, says the political scientist, these sanctions could be used by Trump as a negotiating tool, in an attempt to obtain more concessions from Brazil. The country is interested in greater access to Brazilian reserves of rare earths — a group of chemical elements used in the manufacture of products technological and high-precision equipment. Another important topic for Trump is the regulation of big techs (large technology companies) in Brazil. In the commercial area, the White House wants to open the Brazilian market to corn-based ethanol produced in the USA. Trump tried to interfere in Bolsonaro’s trial without success. REUTERS During the week, Trump defended a tariff on Brazilian meat. Even with the meeting’s efforts to try to seal peace, the two leaders also gave signs that they did not intend to back down from their positions during the week leading up to the meeting. On Wednesday (10/22), Trump stated that American cattle farmers “are doing well” thanks to the tariff imposed on cattle from other countries, such as Brazil. “The ranchers, who I adore, don’t realize that the only reason they’re doing so well — for the first time in decades — is because I imposed tariffs on the cattle they enters the United States, including a 50% tariff on Brazil”, he wrote on his social network. The republican added that, if it weren’t for him, American cattle farmers “would be in the same situation as in the last 20 years”, which he classified as “terrible”. Lula, on Thursday (23/10), once again defended alternatives to the dollar in global trade. During a visit to Indonesia, before going to Malaysia, the president stated that both Pix and the Indonesian payment system have the potential to facilitate exchanges between the two countries and between members of the Brics bloc. “The 21st century demands that we have the courage that we didn’t have in the 20th century”, said Lula, when defending “a new way of acting commercially, so that we don’t become dependent on anyone”, without directly mentioning the United States. The defense of alternative currencies to the American one, reinforced by Brazil during the summit of the Brics in July, was pointed out by Trump as one of the reasons for imposing tariffs on Brazilian exports.

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