The International Monetary Fund (IMF) improved its Gross Domestic Product (GDP) projection for this year, but worsened that of 2026. Among the main factors cited that should contribute to the slowdown are the impacts of the United States’ 50% tariffs on Brazilian products. The report was released this Tuesday (14).
The document predicts an expansion of 2.4% this year and an increase of 0.1 percentage point in relation to the previous forecast, made last July. For 2026, however, the Fund cut its expectation to an increase of 1.9%, 0.2 pp less than the previous scenario indicated.
The IMF also points out that signs of moderation are appearing in the Brazilian economy as restrictive monetary and fiscal policies progress. The Fund also adjusted the growth outlook for Emerging Market and Developing Economies, of which Brazil is a part. Growth of 4.2% is forecast this year, compared to 4.1% previously, maintaining 4.0% for 2026.
The ministry considers that the group’s activity, excluding China’s participation, was stronger than expected in the first half of this year. However, the report notes that “external conditions are becoming more challenging and, in some cases, domestic momentum is slowing,” and higher US tariffs are “reducing external demand, with profound implications for several large export-oriented economies, while trade policy uncertainty is affecting corporate appetite for investment.”
