Mercedes boss Toto Wolff believes there is a “psychological advantage” to being an underdog in the fight for the Formula 1 title.
His comments came as Max Verstappen once again slashed his points deficit in Austin, picking up wins in both the sprint and grand prix.
The 2025 F1 drivers’ championship looked certain to go McLaren’s way before the summer break, but momentum has shifted in recent weeks as Verstappen and Red Bull turned around their fortunes. The Dutchman won three out of four races, and is now just 40 points behind championship leader Oscar Piastri with five grands prix remaining on the calendar.
And while very few people would consider a four-time world champion an underdog, Wolff believes there is an advantage to being the hunter rather than the hunted in F1.
“Back in the day it was Max, I believe, and then it was Sebastian in that hunt,” Wolff said to reporters after the United States Grand Prix.
“The underdog has always a little bit of a psychological advantage – because if the probability is the odds are definitely against Max.
“I don’t know, I’ve calculated it before, but it’s 19% or 21% – something along those lines. So, you look at the probability that’s very low – one DNF can change everything.”
Max Verstappen must outscore the two McLaren drivers to stay in the fight
Photo by: Clive Mason / Getty Images
With the odds stacked against Verstappen, Wolff believes this alters the way a racer drives. Someone with a comfortable lead will take fewer risks and be more calculated in their attacks, while the driver doing the chasing could be bolder with their on-track moves. This, he says, was plain to see in Sunday’s race at the Circuit of the Americas.
“I think that affects the driving, you know how aggressive, can you actually go for an overtake,” Wolff explained. “Maybe you can see with Lando today – he’s done it at the end, but it was tricky at times to decide whether you put your nose in or not.”
McLaren’s Lando Norris lost second place off the line to Charles Leclerc in the US GP. He then spent the first phase of the race trying to catch up and pass the Ferrari, before finally making a move on lap 21, and then retaking second place after the pitstops on lap 51.
When quizzed further on the turnaround that Verstappen and Red Bull have shown, Wolff admitted that the Dutchman is the one to beat in F1 right now.
“I think Max is great,” he said. “They’ve just turned the car around and that car is the most competitive at the moment, and he’s scoring the big points. He’s as good as it gets as a driver.”
Verstappen currently has 306 world championship points compared with 346 for Piastri and 332 for Norris, with five grands prix and two sprint races remaining in 2025.
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